Posts by Rod David
Livestox, January 15 2015
Thursday”s Livestock began with an overview of the recent MJ sector rallies, and their counterparts. Upside examples were CANN MNTR, MINE and ERBB. Their counterparts — i.e. stocks seemingly ignorant of the nearby buying pressure — include ATTBF, AGTK an TRTC.
If the broader market”s decline continues any further, then the MJ leaders will start giving back recent gains. Stocks that haven”t participated, or worse yet are scraping support, could capitulate down sharply. But if the broader market starts to recover, then MJ stocks would STILL be every bit as vulnerable to selling pressures.
Next, we focused on the broader market”s pattern. It”s not pretty. Indexes have dropped to their precipices, where a gentle breeze could blow them off of their cliffs. After discussing FEYE and GWPH, short-entry suggestions were described:
NFLX
319.55 support
328.35 resistance
264.00 target
AAPL
107.30 support
109.35 resistance
88.00 target
AMZN
285.00 support
297.00 resistance
252.00 target
PCLN was discussed, too. At the 38:30 mark we looked at member requests for instant chart analysis. These were addressed in this order:
INSY, Metals, NEM, CDE, IA, CANN, CANV, MNTR, OXIS, Crude Oil, CLF.
As a reminder, I must be away from the screens for today”s last hour.
Enjoy!
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 16 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It”s not often that expiration is shared with so many high-profile influential econ reports. But that”s the case Friday with two consumer reports that have reliable track records for influencing price action. Add in a Fed speaker and…
**Option Expiration
**Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
*Narayana Kocherlakota — dove
8:50 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
**Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
11:00 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
1:10 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2010.75 | 2004.00 |
| …would target | 2016.00 | 2009.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1997.75 | 1991.00 |
| …would target | 1989.75 | 1983.00 |
| Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Today”s Livestox starts at noon
Today”s Livestox starts at noon ET. Login info is below.
Note that an issue with the telephone audio has been resolved
(iPads and Tablets use the accompanying teleconference info to get audio.)
Login at https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm
optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #
Other requirements can be found here:
http://marketfy.com/product/stock-technical-trade-alerts/blog/1143/view/60141/
Post-open review
Better order extra Dramamine. This has no reason to stop.
The pre-open recovery back up to 2018.00 was impressive, but also irrelevant. Yesterday afternoon”s buyers gained traction. They would be robbed of it by exiting the open back under a prior low.
Which they did.
The open”s blip-up to 2016.00 was reversed all the way to (within 1 tick of) the 1991.00 bias-down target. That would have been put into play by rejecting tests of both the 2010.25 and 2015.50 bias-up parameters through 10:15. The target was fulfilled at 10:00.
1-minute RSI diverged positively there, while 3-minute RSI tried avoiding oversold altogether. The reaction up triggered a buy signal above 1996.75 that extended back up to the 2010.25 bias-up signal.
This being a no-bias environment, the 1998.50-2010.25 bias signals should contain its price action. Already having tested both, an offsetting test of either isn”t required. During the bias environment.
But the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30.
And since yesterday afternoon”s buyers failed to maintain their traction through the open, rallies are likely to fail. The market is much more vulnerable to probing the morning”s low. That rule applies to these factors as much for a 25-point trading range as for a 10-point trading range.
P.S. New session lows are still 10 points lower. Likely to be retested, and not required to hold. Somehow exiting the bias environment at fresh session highs is pretty much the only bullish scenario.