Posts by Rod David
Because that
Perhaps yesterday”s action by the Swiss had much more impact than to adjust FX rates. Doing it so surprisingly meant more than keeping their plans quiet in advance. They lied. And it”s not that one Central Bank has been caught lying — that evidence pile has been growing taller for years.
The greater impact is whom the SNB lies harmed… everyone. Central Banker lies previously could at least be assumed as part of a coordinated strategy. Surely, SNB isn”t the first to have noticed the economic fat they”ve been nibbling at for years by fiat has been reduced to just skin and bones. SNB is just the first to act.
With respect to John Nash, the cannibals are now turning on each other.
We had a pre-close Market
We had a pre-close Market Wrap since I”ll be away from the screens during the last hour. As a reminder, Trading Plan probably won”t be available, and Bias Parameters will be available in the morning. Here”s the so-called Market Wrap recording.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkrywvk
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
The overnight spike down in reaction to the Swiss Franc fell to 1.1575. Its bounce through 1.1755 couldn”t prevent the requirement for retesting the low, probably down to 1.1525
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The Swiss news helped save a top-heavy pattern by triggering a gap up to the next higher target at 1254.00. Extending higher intraday held 1267.00 resistance, which must be exceeded through Friday”s close to confirm a test of 1287.50 is in-play. Not confirming wouldn”t necessarily be bearish.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding its 16.95 pullback limit Wednesday was rewarded only by retesting Tuesday”s 17.20 high — nothing near the Gold behavior — further suggesting fresh lows are needed sooner rather than later.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight dip to 148-11 was saved by the Swiss news, triggering a probe of 4 ticks above Wednesday”s 150-10 high. Back under 149-12 would start to signal the rally”s momentum was lapsing, and back under 148-23 would signal momentum reversing down. Extending higher would otherwise target 151-08 and potentially 151-28.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
An overnight surge to 51.25 was retraced intraday by a couple of legs that ultimately failed to hold 47.45 as support. But probes nevertheless chipped away at the upper-end of the prior consolidation that had been supported by 47.45. Its recovery, confirmed above 48.65, would still signal a new upleg underway.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending higher through 3.29 by more than a nickel didn”t prevent reversing down intraday to test 3.07 support. Support held, but more backing-and-filling remains likely before a durable upleg can trigger.
REMINDER — I”m away from
REMINDER — I”m away from the screens during today”s last hour. The very precariously positioned market might find another way to delay a deeper drop, Rallying into the final hour would suggest another short-squeeze underway like yesterday afternoon. Otherwise, fresh session lows into the final hour could discover quickly there is not much buying pressure at lower levels.
Fallen and CAN’T get up, or WON’T?
REMINDER: I”M AWAY FOR THE FINAL HOUR
Having held tests of both sets of bias parameters, the morning bounced anyway back up to the 2010.25 bias-up signal. And reversed back down again. The bias environment”s lapsing was greeted by eager sellers champing at the bit to break under the 1998.00 bias-down signal.
The noon hour”s 1985.25 low pierced the overnight plunge”s low by 3 ticks. The 10-point bounce from there still seems only obligatory. In fact, the low is now being attacked.
It almost wasn”t. This afternoon”s 1991.00 bias-down signal wasn”t broken in time to trigger at 1:20. But it was broken at 1:30, invalidating whatever was accomplished at 1:20. This is an invalidated no-bias environment. The 1983.00 bias-down target should be influential if tested, but its test isn”t required.
Also, as precariously positioned as the market is, further downside is still ONLY likely. It is NOT required. Like yesterday”s short-squeeze, not trending down would instead react up sharply. DON”T GET CAUGHT SHORT. Expiration jockeying should be the source of a lot of the selling pressure. Meanwhile, the coming 3-day weekend suggests there aren”t many sellers of other motivation. Having said that, there”s still nothing bullish about this setup.
Don”t forget that I”ll be away for the final hour. We”ll have a pre-close Market Wrap around 3:00, and try to post the recording for those who can”t attend. But no Trading Plan will be published tonight, and Bias Parameters won”t be available until tomorrow.