Posts by Rod David
The Chartroom just hiccupped and
The Chartroom just hiccupped and bounced attendees. It”s not actually letting them go, so they can”t log back in. If this happened to you, just change one part of your login info:
— change your email extension from .com to .net, or vice-versa
This will fool the system, and let you back in. Please let me know ASAP if the difficulty persists.
Post-open review
Expiration craziness upsets timing, but still sticks to its levels.
Almost oblivious to the overnight probes into negative territory, the open surged from its 1983.00 bias-down signal to test 1994.00. But gapping open from under yesterday”s lows and overnight highs was doomed to failure.
At least, for awhile.
Its reaction attacked 1981.00 while also testing the 1983.00 bias-down signal within 3 minutes of the bias timing window. That invoked the grace period through 10:30, which ultimately avoided triggering bias-down.
Also at 10:30? The 1989.75 bias-up signal was being recovered.
It”s too late to trigger bias-up. No-bias is invalidated. For the balance of this morning, bias levels may be relevant, but their tests aren”t predictive. And, yes, this is a very unusual situation. But it shall pass. Beginning at about 11:30.
At least, for awhile.
Meanwhile, the 1995.50 bias-up target was tested to within 1 tick. Exiting the bias environment through 11:30-noon back under its 1989.75 bias-up signal would undermine the recovery”s sponsorship. Otherwise, extending through 1996.25 would signal a bigger bounce underway.
Can this morning”s open reject
Can this morning”s open reject the overnight drop? What if it does? What if it doesn”t? What if it tries, does, but actually doesn”t? I forgot the original question. I”m sure it”s in the recording of this morning”s pre-open Market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwzfjpp
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s bias environment exit was within the noon hour”s range, so entering the final hour higher or lower wasn”t going to give anybody was gaining traction for their efforts. In fact, a break above 1994.00 probed its minimum 1997.00 objective to attack its maximum 1998.75 potential. Any higher would have been bullish through the close. Having expended all but 2 ticks of available buying pressure without gaining traction for the effort, the balance of the session trended back down to the lows at 1984.75. Futures got volatile into their close, surging 8 points and then cutting that in half.
Overnight action”s new info…
Get down, and stay down, apparently… Thursday”s post-close swing helped to extend the late dive as the drop extended relentlessly and deeply down to 1970.25. It was all retraced into and out of Europe”s opens. But 1988.75 reacted back down to almost 1973.00. Another recovery to 1988.00 has reacted down to almost 1976.00. Having retraced new highs to back under prior lows, last night formed a “new Globex trend extreme” that will require intraday retest eventually.
If, then…
First, the bullish scenario: Opening above yesterday”s lows and above the overnight range would shift the paradigm into reversal mode. It”s a perfect storm of expiration trending, its last-minute twist on position jockeying, and the impending illiquidity of a three-day holiday weekend, a substantial rally would be underway. We”d still assume a bearish WedEX influences the afternoon — although WedEX could invert to bullish by exiting the morning”s bias environment above Wednesday”s 2005.00-2008.00 close… Sadly, now, the bearish scenario: Overnight lows are an attraction, and not gapping up above a prior high would put them into play. Also, greeting a weekend with only gradually lower and lower new relative lows can discover a lot of bottom-fishers and knife catchers suddenly trying to fit through the exit.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1984.50 would be less likely to trigger the 1983.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1974.75 would be likely also to extend under the 1977.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal, having potential for extending down to 1958.00 and 1955.00. And then 18 or 30 points lower.
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1996.00 | 1989.75 |
| …would target | 2002.25 | 1995.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1989.75 | 1983.00 |
| …would target | 1984.00 | 1977.25 |
| Signal status: INVALIDATED LATE NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.