Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 6, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tueday’s jobs opening report is one of the week’s few that is potentially influential, depending on the degree to which it contradicts or reinforces Friday’s payrolls.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2737.25 | 2737.75 |
| …would target | 2748.25 | 2748.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2720.25 | 2720.75 |
| …would target | 2713.00 | 2713.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Backing off of backing-and-filling.
Post-open surge collapses, for awhile.
An extended narrowing range had finally broken higher after Europe’s opens.
It extended to 2729.50 but retraced back to the overnight range’s 2720.00 upper-end. The rally repeated into and out of the open, extending higher to 2733.25. That also reversed back down, this time to fresh lows at 2717.00.
Along the way, the 2728.50 bias-up signal held its test through 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2709.50 bias-down signal. A fresh post-10:15 low has helped to confirm.
None of which is preventing a bounce, currently attacking 2728.00. Almost any higher for almost any longer would start to signal fresh highs in-play.
Meanwhile, the 10-point bounce is more likely oversized for having dropped 16 points high-to-low, and 2726.75 resistance (being tested now) is likely to hold. Back under 2723.25 would start to signal the bounce was done, and the drop has resumed.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Taking off in time?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Favorable China trade war news triggered Thursday night’s 35-point surge from 2731.00. Its optimism could be added to Thursday’s pre-close optimism, a last-minute break higher above afternoon ranging, without gaining traction, ahead of AAPL’s post-close earnings. And now there was optimism ahead of Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report. Even more optimistically, AAPL’s negative reaction was largely ignored. So, greeting Friday’s open at 2751.00 extended down sharply to probe its target by several ticks down to 2699.50 as the noon hour ended. Bouncing to 2728.00 ranged sideways into the 2722.00-2724.00 close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Extending narrow ranging has finally broken out. Is it a false break? Sunday night’s open had immediately slid 9-11 points to attack 2713.00, and then to test it. A 7-point range up to 2720.00 persisted through Europe’s opens before finally breaking. Now a 3-hour old rally is starting to probe above Friday afternoon’s highs, and probing this morning’s 2728.50 bias-up signal by 1 point.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s slide was by definition a surprise, as the overnight rally was reversed from well into positive territory to deeply negative. Turning a 28-point gain into a 28-point loss expended a lot of selling pressure, but no traction was gained from the effort as the two prior sessions’ lows held a brief afternoon probe. So, converting Friday’s drop into a new downleg all but requires resuming this morning to fresh lows, or resolving down after shallow backing-and-filling this morning. Initially backing-and-filling this morning also describes a recovery’s early stages. And overnight action doesn’t currently indicate resuming the decline, not unless the bias-up signal were to hold a post-open test and trigger no-bias, or its current test is already reversing down pre-open.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2730.50 would be likely to trigger the 2728.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2725.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 11/3/18) …Warning shot, or correction?
On net, last week’s gain wasn’t substantial. But it a weekly gain had become rare, so there’s that. And Fridays close — even being well under its pre-open high — was much, much higher than Monday’s trend low. So, there’s that.
Whatever that is, it hasn’t accomplished enough to qualify as reversing the trend up. Perhaps it is a “warning shot across the bow” at bears that the turn is coming, or at least that it is forming. Or, likelier, perhaps it is only a correction, expending a maximum amount of buying pressure and refueling buyers without reversing the trend up.
This week’s Saturday Review describes each resolution, and their likely paths, while applying the rule sets of my methodology, which can be applied consistently across all liquid markets.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AAPL, BKNG, DATA, WDC, UA, NEWR, DIS, SYMC, SQ, WYNN, QCOM, TTWO, GE
transcript
Mark G: gm
David B: Good Morning
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post comments and questions as they occur to you.
—————– (11/03/2018 09:39) —————–
Mark G: Sat Review section that usually has link didn’t have today – just a recording from last Sat
Mark G: yes
Mark G: k
—————– (11/03/2018 10:06) —————–
Mark G: simply extending higher can leave the Q if the bottom is in still open
—————– (11/03/2018 10:08) —————–
Bill G: Will a rally from between the current price and 2683 still be considerered a corrective rally even if the rally extends above 2800.?
Mark G: can this H&S break falsely higher to retest its head & then reverse down?
—————– (11/03/2018 10:19) —————–
ljr iPad: stocks (all earnings this week). Looking for positions of strength/weakness to play the earnings event. Thx
ljr iPad: monday: BKNG
ljr iPad: tues: DATA, NEWR, DIS
ljr iPad: wed: SQ, WYNN, QCOMM
ljr iPad: thurs: TTWO
Bill G: Bigger picture it6 wstill could?
—————– (11/03/2018 10:22) —————–
Bill G: 2806 would still be short of a trend change longer term?
—————– (11/03/2018 10:29) —————–
David B: WDC – Does it look like this has completed a bottom?
David B: UA,SYMC
—————– (11/03/2018 10:36) —————–
David B: what level f pull back would be a concern?
David B: levl of a pull back
David B: yes
—————– (11/03/2018 10:48) —————–
David B: is symc a jan candidate?
—————– (11/03/2018 10:52) —————–
David B: what closing level for GE would indicate the selling is done?
—————– (11/03/2018 10:54) —————–
Mark G: RSI diverged positively in SQ on a retest but perhaps it already perfomred on this
—————– (11/03/2018 10:57) —————–
Bill G: Sorry another mkt question—The mkt has corrected about .382 of the distance from Mon low and Fri high. Would a rally from here be considered weaker then if the pullback extended closer to .618 before rallying? I’m thinking the mkt may be about to start the second leg of a corrective rally before starting at least another test of the low.
—————– (11/03/2018 11:09) —————–
ljr iPad: thanks for review and stocks. I’ll watch recording.
—————– (11/03/2018 11:14) —————–
Bill G: ok,thanks. Have a good one.
Mark G: thx much