Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… High-wire act continues.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s session resembled death-defying acrobatic stunts on a high-wire, high above the ground. Already rallying 30-33 points overnight, the 2712.00 gap up established a position of strength during the opening 15 minutes. Despite the rally soon extending to test 2729.00, it was retraced entirely to attack 2708.00 into the noon hour. Like the high-wire acrobat’s forward flip. Then came another, jumping even higher to 2737.00. Not yet extending higher through the bias environment exit or final hour entry made a pullback increasingly likely. But what was likely to be only short and/or shallow became a very satisfying drop under its 2729.00 sell signal to test 2710.00 at the cash session close, and 2706.00 at the futures close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex began rallying immediately, testing and retesting what is this morning’s 2721.00 bias-up signal up to 2722.25 before midnight. Retracing it into and out of Europe’s opens tested and retested 2708.00, essentially back down to unchanged. Another bounce soon began, and it is now probing a fresh highs now testing 2727.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Is the high-wire act back? No “unfinished business” was left outstanding Wednesday, although its 2729.00-2739.00 highs are likely to be probed up to 2741.00. Gapping down under Wednesday’s lows to isolate its session would signal otherwise, and it’s not yet too late to begin that effort, but it’s getting there. Until very recently, the overnight bouncing has still been only a range. Meanwhile, extending higher to test yesterday’s highs at the open would have only a narrow window either to exceed them, or else to hold their test and reverse down again.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2722.50 would be likely to trigger the 2717.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2715.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2717.50 | 2717.75 |
| …would target | 2725.00 | 2725.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2704.50 | 2704.50 |
| …would target | 2697.25 | 2697.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s gap up established a position of strength by the opening 15 minutes holding a test “lower prior highs” at 2707.00. That quickly resolved up during the morning bias environment to test the next relevant resistance at 2716.50-2724.00, the morning tested 2729.00. Pulling back to the open recovered to fresh session highs during the afternoon bias environment to test 2737.00.
Up 25 post-open. Up 52-54 points from Tuesday’s close. All of the post-open gain was retraced by a drop that originated at the proxy window exit, testing 2710.00 at the cash session close, and 2706.00 at the futures close.
Reversing down Thursday morning now requires gapping down to isolate Wednesday’s session. Otherwise, Wednesday’s highs are likely to be probed up to 2741.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s retest of the longstanding 1.1394-1.1430 target area extended down without delay overnight. The second consecutive lower close confirms the breakout, and now requires at least an eventual third lower close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending down overnight confirmed Tuesday’s break under the 1228.00 sell signal, which now requires at least an eventual third lower close.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s open gapped down under the rising channel’s lower-end, down to its last touch under 14.30. This sequence can repeat indefinitely and extend down again, although a second consecutive lower close would at least confirm the decline remains intact.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still no catalyst for a flight-to-safety Wednesday, allowing the pullback to continue back to 138-04. Its break would still essentially seal a top to the bounce, so holding it all but relies upon stocks reversing back down.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially firming in reaction to Wednesday’s EIA, the session ultimately only ranged narrowly around unchanged. Back above 67.95 would trigger a new upleg.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping back up Wednesday extended higher intraday to test the 3.25 buy signal that Tuesday’s open had chipped away at. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Thin air.
Probing fresh session highs.
The close-quarters Double Top that had formed from testing 2729.25 ultimately reacted down 21 points to 2721.25 after entering the noon hour. Rallying straight up since then has extended to probe the morning’s highs up to 2732.00.
And now the current 2730.25 pullback limit is being violated.
Slightly exceeding the 2728.25 bias-up target at 1:20 was sufficient to renew the bias-up signal. Its next higher objective is 2733.00, and then 2741.00. Neither is required of a renewed signal. And reversing down has room to test the 2721.00 bias-up signal until the bias window starts lapsing.
Back under 2726.75 (being tested now) would have near-term potential down to 2721.00. The rally could resume from there, but back under 2715.25 would reverse momentum down — probably not just a little if broken soon after exiting the bias environment.