Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 1, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy. And high-profile. And its post-open reports are influential to price action. They’re likely to duplicate any reaction to the pre-open reports. The post-open reports look at industrial data, which is an opportunity for contradicting each other, or for confirming outliers.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2721.25 | 2721.00 |
| …would target | 2728.50 | 2728.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2710.25 | 2710.25 |
| …would target | 2699.00 | 2699.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Exended.
Overnight rally extends sharply higher.
The overnight rally eventually extended to probe above Monday morning’s 2707.00 high up to 2715.75. 
The post-open dip held a test of 2707.00‘s “lower prior high” to establish a position of strength, and back above 2714.00 signaled the rally resuming.
That test was recovered to exit the first 15 minutes of volatility probing back into Thursday’s 2716.50-2724.00 range, without yet rejecting it, adding to the position of strength. So, any reaction down would be considered only temporary.
But there wasn’t much weakness, as the post-open rally extended sharply higher to 2729.25. A close-quarters Double Top there has reacted down to 2714.00. Back above 2721.00 would start to signal the setup’s retest.
Fresh highs could next target 2733.00 or 2741.00. Otherwise, having tested 2724.00 intraday, not closing above 2724.00 would suggest that a corrective bounce was ending.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Extending.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Mostly rallying overnight up to 2664.00 had been retraced to greet Tuesday’s open in negative territory under 2643.00. The 2636.25 earlier Globex low and morning’s 2633.50 bias-down signal were tested pre-open. Both held to avoid the overnight rally’s retracement from setting a bearish tone for the morning. Quite the opposite, the resolution proved as bullish as the setup could have been bearish if triggered. Quickly surging to 2675.00 was largely retraced, and another surge to 2674.00 was retraced again to a fresh low at 2640.50 while testing and holding the afternoon’s bias-down target. The bias environment exit surged again, extending to fresh highs at 2690.00 through the close. Three steep substantial surges, and it was still an inside day, well under Monday morning’s 2707.00 high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging broke higher after midnight, steadily extending to 2704.25 — a recently relevant area — Monday’s initial surge was testing 2704.50 resistance when it peaked. Reacting down 8 points was soon recovered entirely, briefly probing a fresh high up to 2706.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Inside days tend to reflect weak-handed sponsorship. So, being biased upward suggests that strong hands are still sellers. That said, inside day or not, “weak-handed” buyers did produce a 41-point rally. Initially extending higher Wednesday would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher intraday, regardless of its sponsorship strength. Extending through Monday morning’s high(where a deep reversal began) would next target Thursday’s late highs up to 2720.50 (where another deep reversal began). Otherwise, a morning decline depends at least on not extending the overnight high or renewing the bias-up signal, if not failing to trigger bias-up.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2692.50 would be likely to trigger the 2691.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2704.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2700.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2690.25 | 2691.00 |
| …would target | 2699.75 | 2700.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2674.50 | 2675.50 |
| …would target | 2665.00 | 2666.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.