Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2669.00 | 2669.50 |
| …would target | 2679.00 | 2679.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2654.25 | 2654.75 |
| …would target | 2648.50 | 2649.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… AND A LAST REMINDER.
REMINDER: I’m away from the screens through Friday morning. Market Tour and First Trade will be recorded and sent, but the afternoon Bias Parameters may be delayed.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
“Through the prior close” tells half the story of yesterday’s session, and also all of it. PART ONE: Thursday’s 22-point gap up from Wednesday’s 2657.75 cash session close was retraced relatively little down to 2668.00 before extending higher. And higher, and higher — testing 2723.50 through the afternoon bias environment exit, and retesting it through the proxy window. The afternoon’s fresh highs were a bias-down rally that was doomed to failure, but could have extended the detour another 12 points higher. Eventually, the reaction down was triggered under 2715.50, but its timing was too late to rely on being more than brief and/or shallow. At least, through the cash session close, which dipped to 2701.00, retracing 38.2% of the post-open rally. PART TWO: However, AMZN and then GOOG earnings reactions triggered a plunge to 2684.00 through the futures close, retracing 61.8% of the post-open rally.
Overnight action’s new info…
A brief consolidation resolved down sharply to 2668.00, retracing Thursday’s post-open dip. Lower lows into midnight touched 2657.00. Bouncing greeted Europe’s opens at 2777.50, but the reception was soft and then softer. Attacking the 2657.00 earlier lows soon gave way to new overnight lows at 2646.00. Its reaction is testing the 2657.00 earlier lows as resistance.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Thursday afternoon’s rally gained traction through the bias environment exit and final hour’s entry. Which is invalidated closing or gapping under the bias environment 2693.00 low. The cash session held, but futures did not. Expending the energy to recover it through the open could be rewarded better than yesterday’s intraday rally. Or, else. Else being a couple of major disappointments reversing a major expending of buying pressure to attack a major prior low — all with Friday Factors bearing down. How ugly could this get if not reversing through the open, or if the morning doesn’t recover a brief probe under Wednesday’s lows? Majorly.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Being based on the prior session’s cash session close, this morning’s parameters are already antiquated. The next lower objective at 2654.00 is being tested, with room down to 2637.25 and 2632.00 before threatening 2595.00 and lower.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2710.50 | 2711.00 |
| …would target | 2718.00 | 2718.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2698.50 | 2699.25 |
| …would target | 2690.25 | 2691.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
REMINDER: I’m away from the screens through Friday morning. Market Tour and First Trade will be recorded and sent, but the afternoon Bias Parameters may be delayed.
Thursday’s rally started modestly, gapping up 22 points from Wednesday’s 2657.75 cash session close. Relatively modestly, as that still overlapped Wednesday’s late price action down to 2668.00 before extending higher. And it did extend higher, putting all modesty aside, fulfilling the morning’s doubly-renewed 2695.00-2697.00 bias-up target.
That was quite the boost to optimism. Triggering the afternoon’s tight bias-down under the 2699.25 bias-down signal didn’t prevent rallying through it to 2723.50. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour and the final hour was entered even higher to gain traction.
Still, that bias-down rally required being retraced back down to 2699.25, which a late break attacked to within 2 points, leaving its eventual test outstanding as “unfinished business.” But that was only the cash session close. A knee-jerk reaction to AMZN’s post-close earning miss and lower guidance extended the drop to 2684.00 through the futures close. And, just like that, the downside attraction was neutralized.
Also, just like that, the afternoon bias environment’s 2693.00 lower-end was being challenged, instead of its 2713.00 upper-end. The traction gained by recovering the bias environment’s high can be invalidated by opening under its low. Which isn’t so difficult. So, not already trending down below it Friday could be bullish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday from Wednesday’s fresh lows was reversed back under Wednesday’s lows and dip deeper into the 1.1395-1.1430 target area.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing back up to 1241.00 resistance overnight was retraced to gap up Thursday only within Wednesday’s 1229.50-1236.00 range. Remaining within Wednesday’s range now allows breaking under 1228.00 to signal momentum reversing down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
14.80 was tested again overnight, and only touched, before gapping up Thursday within Wednesday’s range. The balance of the morning trended back down under Wednesday’s lows to attack 14.60, whose break would signal momentum reversing down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Correlation to recent stock market gyrations have established the upside potential depends upon being a destination during flights-to-safety, which wasn’t needed Thursday morning, so price only fluctuated narrowly around the 138-18 buy signal.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Recovering from Wednesday’s reaction back down under 67.25 didn’t was recovered by Thursday’s open, but only to fluctuate narrowly around 67.25 intraday. Its test up to 67.72 Wednesday would now trigger the buy signal.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s choppy inside day gapped up before retracing back to Wednesday’s close. The open’s high was briefly probed, but also reacted down. Fresh lows for the pattern remain likely.