Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2726.25 | 2727.25 |
| …would target | 2734.50 | 2735.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2716.00 | 2717.00 |
| …would target | 2708.00 | 2709.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Another round.
Overnight recovery extends, corrects again.
Having tested 2721.00-2723.25 overnight, recovering 2735.50 through the open would suggest the pullback was complete.
And perhaps it is.
The overnight recovery actually extended up to 2746.25. An opening dip from there was likely, but also likely to recover from as low as 2733.00. Attacking it to within 2 ticks snapped back up 10 points to 2743.50.
That recovery didn’t hold, but 2735.50‘s recovery was maintained through the open. So, position of strength.
A position of strength is about context, and doesn’t dictate immediate direction. It certainly didn’t prevent triggering late bias-down under 2734.75. Or already fulfilling its 2727.25 bias-down target. The position of strength’s context should dictate that the test is absorbed and reversed back rally mode.
Not yet recovering keeps alive potential for retesting 2721.00, too. But back above 2736.50 would signal the post-open pullback AND overnight pullback were done, and that momentum is reversing up.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Back-and-fill-and-rally-again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open was greeted by a 48-point relentless slide that fulfilled the required retest of the recent 2712.25 low. The open almost immediately extended the decline down to 2692.25 during the session’s first hour. The balance of the session trended back up to eventually touch 2754.00 — still in negative territory about 3 points short of unchanged. The position-squaring window dropped back down to 2738.75.
Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging sideways through midnight held Tuesday’s late 2738.75 low as support and found resistance at 2748.00-2750.00. Europe’s opens were greeted by trending to and through 2732.00 on the way to 2719.75. Now a reaction up is testing 2732.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing back above Tuesday’s 2721.00-2723.25 opening highs creates a position of strength. Extending higher immediately was unlikely, as I explained during yesterday’s Market Wrap. The likely targets for a corrective dip were 2735.50, 2721.00-2723.25, 2715.50 or even down to 2701.50. Dipping to 2719.75 qualifies as a test of 2721.00-2723.25. This creates a new challenge, since its support test yesterday afternoon already launched its own upleg. So, either the rally will now resume into the open by first recovering 2735.50, or a fresh overnight low will next target 2715.50 or even down to 2701.50. Any lower would start to signal that Tuesday’s intraday bounce was self-fulfilling, its position of strength was being invalidated, and that the decline was resuming.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2735.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2734.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2729.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2751.50 | 2752.00 |
| …would target | 2761.75 | 2762.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2734.00 | 2734.75 |
| …would target | 2726.50 | 2727.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Did it, or didn’t it? Did closing back above Tuesday’s opening highs create a position of strength?
That would enable recovering from dipping immediately on Wednesday, if not already backing-and-filling overnight. Likely objectives would be 2735.50, 2721.00-2723.25, 2715.50 or even down to 2701.50. Any lower would start to signal that Tuesday’s intraday bounce was self-fulfilling.
The position of strength could instead resume the rally overnight to test Monday afternoon’s 2766.00 highs. At that point, the open can either extend higher or react down to indicate whether the bounce was extending or done.
I wouldn’t expect the bounce to extend higher immediately, so testing 2766.00 at Wednesday’s open would be likely to reverse down. At least reversing down immediately overnight could satisfy selling pressure that is still very much intact, without yet resuming the decline.
The only other significant template — which is always a template — would be among the exceptions to the rule. Sure, closing back above the morning’s high, after trending down overnight and through the open, often delays the prior trend. But failing to hold support through relevant timing windows could find that Tuesday’s recovery attempt only attracted more sellers out of the woodwork.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.