Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s fresh low intraday under 1.1500 was still above the fresh low overnight under 1.1490. And the session bounced back into negative territory, although never back above Monday’s highs. The 1.1395-1.1430 objective remains intact.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reversing down from testing the lower-end of the 1236.00-1241.00 bounce target had repeatedly held 1222.50. Surging overnight tested the target’s upper-end to 1243.00 before dipping back down to 1236.00. Closing under 1236.00 would reverse the trend back down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still testing 14.60 support kept alive potential for another bounce, or simply to retest last week’s test of 14.80. Tuesday’s gap up there ranged flat-to-lower intraday, still needing to close under 14.60 to reverse the trend back down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up to the 138-18 buy signal extended up to 139-07 as stocks continued sliding. That was retraced back down to the open’s gap as the stock slide began reversing. Closing AT the relevant level instead of below or above it keeps the door open to resolving either way. Filling the gap first back down to Monday’s close below would be more bullish for forming a bottom.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 73.90 sell signal extended even deeper during Tuesday’s $3 drop to 65.75. Reversing up immediately wouldn’t be credible, and bounces are meanwhile likely to hold a test of 67.25 as resistance.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday to 3.15 extended another dime to attack 3.24 and nearly fill the gap back up to Friday’s close, which is meanwhile resistance, and likely to push back down..
Mid-day Update… Seems kind of hasty.
Rallying sharply out of morning’s low.
The initial collapse down to 2692.25 was recovered to a minimum 2711.00 bounce target, and then its next higher attraction at 2715.25. 
A 61.8% retracement was recovered to resume the rally, which has extended up to 2736.25.
The afternoon’s 2713.00 bias-up signal triggered easily, along with renewing bias-up above its 2720.00 target.
Which allows a reversal room down to 2713.00 during the bias-up window. Lower, later. Currently, a pullback is testing the open’s 2721.00-2723.25 highs as support.
The resolution to this dip is very important.
Closing above the open’s 2721.00-2723.25 highs would suggest that a near-term bottom has formed. This would be more credible had this morning’s low formed a Double Bottom. That could be provided tomorrow, from the position of strength of having closed above the open’s highs.
Otherwise, closing back under the open’s highs would suggest the decline remains intact. That’s not at all unlikely, since the decline has already consolidated, and immediately beginning another consolidation isn’t usual behavior.
In either scenario, closing just above or below 2721.00-2723.25 is unlikely. Holding its recovery, or not, should be decisive — whether at today’s close, or through tomorrow’s open by proxy.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Oct 24, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: More afternoon Fed speakers help to keep Wednesday’s headlines active. But so do several Housing sector reports that could deviate among each other, or from the recent softer data, and the afternoon’s Beige Book. AMD has been a high-profile stock recently, and it reports earnings post-close.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*PMI Composite FLASH
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
12:30 PM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
2:00 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2712.25 | 2713.00 |
| …would target | 2719.25 | 2720.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2696.50 | 2697.50 |
| …would target | 2688.75 | 2689.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… A burned bridge too far?
Probing under critical support.
The pre-open test of 2709.00 by 3 ticks didn’t qualify as a pre-open test, so it couldn’t be absorbed to form a durable bottom. 
And by printing fresh lows under the earlier 2714.00 low, an opening bounce was likely to peak at 2721.00-2723.25.
The bounce limit was thoroughly tested before finally reversing down. The recent Ascending Triangle’s oversold RSIs at 2712.25 had been neutralized already pre-open, and presented little friction to slow a collapse to 2692.25.
A bounce limit was soon violated, and a buy signal eventually triggered (after a failed test). Its minimum bounce target in the 2711.00 area is being tested now. There’s potential for extending to 2715.25, but no requirement.
Back under 2702.00 (being tested now) would start to signal the bounce had ended, whether only to retest the low down to 2690.00 or to extend the downleg. Nothing prevents extending the decline much deeper. The next major objective below is 2670.00, unless today’s close recovers the morning’s highs. Extending the decline also has no pace and no slope too fast or too deep at this stage.