Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 23, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Several Fed speakers throughout Tuesday — and, more importantly, two being in the afternoon — keep alive the potential for headlines to impact price action. The session is otherwise not influenced by econ reports.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
9:30 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
1:30 PM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
2:15 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2763.50 | 2765.25 |
| …would target | 2769.50 | 2771.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2752.50 | 2754.25 |
| …would target | 2749.50 | 2747.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bearing down.
Isolation rejected, WedEX reaffirmed.
Probing 7 points under Friday’s 2756.50 low was recovered to open at this morning’s 2777.00 bias-up signal. Maintaining its recovery would isolate the probe under Friday’s low to the overnight. 
That would be bullish. Or, would have been bullish.
The recovery was maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, but not by a complex probe minutes later. Not maintaining the recovery is almost as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. The drop extended down to 2751.00.
That was almost 30 points under the open’s 2780.50 high. That’s the bearish WedEX’s aggressive influence. That bearish influence should persist through the bias environment, but now a bounce is back well above the 2764.25 bias-down signal up to 2775.00. So, the question is whether the bearish influence will resume.
The trend isn’t required to extend, although that’s increasingly likely — even after the bearish WedEX lapses — if this morning’s dip isn’t recovered and reversed. But the 2758.75 bias-down target is already met. At least the 2764.25 bias-down signal should be retested as support, regardless of its resolution.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Dueling setups.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s 52-poiont slide from 2808.00 had bottomed early in the afternoon, and consolidated through the close back up to 2772.00-2777.00. Flat-to-higher overnight was apparently reassuring enough to trigger Friday’s opening surge up to 2800.00. But that soon peaked, and the open was retraced soon after noon. Friday afternoon’s bearish WedEX influenced price deeper to within 6 points of Thursday’s 2756.50 low. The final hour’s recovery attempt failed and buyers gained no traction for their efforts, while the bigger picture’s Ascending Triangle retracement was retained.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down to and through Thursday’s low, to what is this morning’s 2758.75 bias-down target. Extending lower soon tested 2750.00, where RSIs diverged positively on a retest to help launch a recovery back into positive territory above 2767.50-2769.00. Its test of 2779.00 at Europe’s opens reacted back down to 2770.00, and now its retest is trying to reverse back up and resume the rally.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Regardless of any opening gap, resuming Friday afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence this morning should be more aggressive — which should be obvious by trending down as the opening 15 minutes of volatility lapses. That setup may find itself competing against the influence of an Isolation setup that maintains the recovery from having probed overnight under Friday’s lows — which should be obvious if that recovery is maintained through the open. Overbought RSIs at Friday’s high would be Monday’s likely attraction if the WedEX’s influence has disappeared, while resuming the decline would simply point down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2780.00would be likely to trigger the 2777.00 bias-upp signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2773.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2762.75 would be likely to trigger the 2764.25 bias-down signal.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/20/18) …Watch that next step.
Was the past week’s choppy wide range only a pause before resuming the downside storm? Or, did it form a base to launch a steep bounce, if not also a recovery? The former is likelier, but the latter has a path. We discuss both, and the characteristics to notice either one playing out, during this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
MCD, CAT, AMZN, GOOGL, SQ, GRUB, BA, GE, INTC, TEAM, AMD, V, VZ, ACBFF, TLRY
transcript
—————– (10/20/2018 09:31) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
jp 2: gm
Bill G: gm
Adam: gm
David B: Good Morning
Mark G: gm
—————– (10/20/2018 09:56) —————–
David B: overcoming a bullish or bearish wedex is that usually strong hands?
—————– (10/20/2018 10:03) —————–
Bill G: What is the margin below the 2712 area that is only a probe of that lowand not a new leg dn?
—————– (10/20/2018 10:04) —————–
ljr iPad: stocks plz: MCD, CAT, GRUB,
ljr iPad: BA
Bill G: ok
ljr iPad: all earnings this week. TEAM worked out well
—————– (10/20/2018 10:08) —————–
David B: AMZN,GOOGL
David B: GE,INTC
ljr iPad: AMD, V. I’ll watch recording
ljr iPad: thx
—————– (10/20/2018 10:14) —————–
Mark G: SQ – seems to be dragged down by the mkt downturn, any hope for getting back to the high?
—————– (10/20/2018 10:39) —————–
David B: many of these high profile earnings this week will show us in near term where the market is going?
—————– (10/20/2018 10:41) —————–
David B: VZ – was 55 a big area of resistance for a breakout?
David B: verizon
—————– (10/20/2018 10:49) —————–
Mark G: thx much
David B: cn you answer my question
David B: can
Bill G: Have a good one
—————– (10/20/2018 10:51) —————–
David B: Thanks