Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2775.00 | 2777.00 |
| …would target | 2783.50 | 2785.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2762.25 | 2764.25 |
| …would target | 2756.75 | 2758.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
No decline, collapse or plunge ever resumed — the noon hour and on was spent fluctuating around unchanged at 2772.00. But buyers gained no traction for their efforts, and the Ascending Triangle’s retracement was retained.
Friday afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence was intact, after the overnight and morning’s rally was absorbed. A more obvious bearish influence is likely to develop at Monday’s open, regardless of opening flat or gapping in either direction.
A very late sell signal triggered and produced several points through the close. But not to fresh lows, which would have made a compelling hold-short. Oversold RSIs at the high will be Monday’s likely attraction if no decline, collapse or plunge has yet resumed.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US FOR SATURDAY REVIEW AT 9:30 AM ET.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A slightly lower low overnight was recovered to trade flat-to-higher intraday Friday, still leaving outstanding the confirmed breakout’s requirement for at least an eventual third lower close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s early probe under the prior two sessions’ lows wasn’t repeated Friday. It wasn’t rejected either, so any initial weakness coming out of the weekend could still get a benefit of the doubt for extending down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping Thursday to test uptrending support at 14.60 was not broken, as Friday bounced back to attack 14.75. But momentum didn’t reverse up, and its reaction attacked 14.60 again, whose break lower would still be likely to extend.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s break under 138-04 wasn’t likely to extend, and was recovered well before the close. But not reversed back above 138-18, which would initially target 140-26. Friday’s dip back under 138-04 also didn’t extend, but wasn’t recovered. So, opening lower Monday can still extend, albeit unlikely without another corrective bounce.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s inside day didn’t reject the ongoing decline, which remains intact unless a close above 69.80 starts to reverse the trend up.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Bouncing Friday avoided confirming Thursday’s break under the 3.26 sell signal. Another attempt to reverse down would be just as credible, so long as 3.31 isn’t recovered through a close.
Mid-day Update…Turnabout is fair play.
Morning bounce absorbed, bearish WedEX in-play.
This being a Friday, an afternoon decline didn’t depend on the open breaking lower. In fact, the market followed the bearish path
I outlined during the Market Tour and retraced its morning rally coming out of the bias environment.
Retraced, but not rejected. Buyers were absorbed, but the trend had not reversed down. Testing 2800.00 was retraced back under 2780.00, but yesterday’s 2786.50 noon hour high was still being overlapped at noon.
That leaves the ground fertile for launching another downleg, but it still needs to be launched. Perhaps it just was, triggering this afternoon’s 2783.25 bias-down signal. But only triggering bias-down, despite having probed 10 points under its 2777.00 bias-down target in the interim.
Now this afternoon’s 2783.25 bias-down signal is being attacked as resistance. Its test should hold, since the afternoon’s bearish WedEX is now influential. It triggered by proxy, so it’s not optimal, but it still gets every benefit of the doubt so long as 2786.50 holds as resistance.
Back above 2786.50 would start making an afternoon rally likelier. The bearish WedEX is sub-optimal and the bias-down target is met and held. Both are loopholes that Friday afternoon’s have a way of leveraging into a reversal. So, regardless of their likely influences, be aware of the potential for another rally.