Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Weaker.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s close under the critical 2749.00 level wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive close on Friday. But neither was it rejected, bouncing overnight to 2784.50 and only to 2779.25 at Friday’s opening high, both under prior highs. So, the downtrend remains intact. Friday’s 2732.25 low essentially filled the gap back to within 2-3 ticks of Thursday’s close. Its bounce peaked within 2-3 ticks of the open’s 2779.25 high to within 2-3 ticks. The bounce would be bearish had Friday probed a new low, but the burden of proof of a bottom forming remains on gapping up Monday, to avoid another intraday downleg.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s gap down quickly extended to 2757.00, retracing at least 61.8% of Friday’s late rally. Trending down overnight has extended to 2745.25 where Friday’s late rally originated. That has reacted up 14 points to 2759.25.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Clearly not indicated to gap up, and immediately rejecting Friday’s late rally, a morning downleg is likely. Objectives range from a probe under Friday’s 2732.25 low (which we already consider unstable if retested) to retesting oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 2712.25 low (which risks also breaking 2709.00 to launch a more substantial meltdown). Somehow recovering to avoid trending down this morning would still face significant resistance at Friday’s ~2780.00 highs.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2766.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2762.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2758.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2749.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2751.75 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/13/18) … Done, or done?
This week we review the damage done to the market by the recently begun decline. Is a corrective bounce possible? Always, but what would be its signals and its potential? Will the decline try resuming? Probably, but how deeply before it’s on to a new lower objective? And what would be the next lower objectives? Quarterly earnings have gotten underway, too, so the market will have plenty of inputs to influence it.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, ACBFF, TLRY, CGC, TGODF, MMNFF, KSHB, GE
transcript
(10/13/2018 09:31)
Rod David: WELCOME TO SATURDAY REVIEW. PLEASE POST QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS AS THEY OCCUR TO YOU.
Mark: gm
David B: Good Morning
Bill G: gm
(10/13/2018 09:46)
Mark: if decline resumes Mon would you still expect a big leg down next?
(10/13/2018 09:59)
David B: Usually when you see a big decline like on wednesday there is a flight to safety in bonds. it looks like this was not happening and was this a warning that something else that market is telling us?
(10/13/2018 10:03)
David B: is 2709 still on the table that a close below would open the flood gates and we are on our way to 2528?
(10/13/2018 10:05)
ljr iPad: stocks: NOW, SHOP, BIDU, CMG, AGN
(10/13/2018 10:07)
ljr iPad: ROKU
(10/13/2018 10:23)
ljr iPad: TEAM
(10/13/2018 10:32)
ljr iPad: team earnings oct18
(10/13/2018 10:35)
ljr iPad: ROKU awhile later
(10/13/2018 10:40)
ljr iPad: thx.
(10/13/2018 10:47)
ljr iPad: GE candidate for tax loss selling this year too?
(10/13/2018 10:49)
Bill G: Thanks
Mark: thx much
ljr iPad: thx.
Rod David: ;)
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2778.25 | 2781.25 |
| …would target | 2786.75 | 2789.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2759.50 | 2762.75 |
| …would target | 2748.50 | 2751.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Did it, or didn’t it. Will it or won’t it. Thursday’s close under 2749.00 wasn’t repeated Friday. But neither was it rejected. Bouncing Thursday night was retraced to retest 2749.00 Friday, and the interim high held. So, the downtrend remains intact.
More so, a lot of buying pressure was expended without gaining traction for the effort. Not an arbitrary amount, but exactly enough to retest the open’s 2779.25 high to within 2-3 ticks. Which would be bearish, had Friday probed a new low. But the burden of proof remains on buyers to gap up Monday, or else sellers get another intraday downleg.
Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 2912.25 low still require a retest. And now Friday’s bounce from within 2-3 ticks of Thursday’s 2731.75 cash session close seems somewhat obligatory. So, a lot of buying pressure was expended to try avoiding plenty of attractions below. Not already rallying at Monday’s open would likely be because sellers are back in force for the morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 AM FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW.