Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… More trending to come?
Wide swings reflect opinions being expressed.
The offsetting test of this morning’s 2899.50 bias-up signal was met very quickly after being put into play. 
An hour remaining in the bias window didn’t make the rally any likelier to extend higher, not when the no-bias environment is likelier to remain within its bias signals.
Reacting down 13 points to 2886.50 was recovered back up to within 2-3 ticks of 2899.50. But its 18-point reaction down was deeper to 2881.50.
Now a shallower recovery has triggered the afternoon’s 2890.25 bias-down signal. Its 2884.50 bias-down target is being retested now by 1 point.
Extending any lower would next target 2880.50 and 2877.50. And then yesterday’s 2866.00-2867.75 lows. And probably lower — which an afternoon drop would make likelier for being less capable of attracting counter-trend sponsorship.
Today is becoming a critical day for the decline’s momentum. Two prior sessions have recovered intraday dips, but too shallowly to reverse the trend back up. Today’s recovery probed a prior high, but hasn’t maintained it. If recent lows didn’t satisfy sellers and/or attract strong-handed accumulation, the the next area for both would be 2850.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Oct 10, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open PPI is the day’s only reliably influential report. Curiously, JOLTS is scheduled for next week, despite usually following payrolls this week. So, be aware that it may be released at 10:00, and its surprises are reliable for influencing price action… which is more possible for this report (whether released this week or next) since JOLTS might be contrary to Friday’s Employment Situation report miss.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
12:15 PM ET
*10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2895.50 | 2900.50 |
| …would target | 2904.00 | 2909.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2885.25 | 2890.25 |
| …would target | 2879.50 | 2884.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Tried, tried again.
Overnight and post-open dips trap shorts.
The overnight slide eventually reached 2874.50, 20 points under the overnight high. The open was greeted at this morning’s 2885.00 bias-down signal. The opening 15 minutes of volatility ranged widely (and wildly) between 2879.00-2888.50.
2885.00 was recovered through 10:15 to trigger no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of its 2899.50 bias-up signal. A fresh high between 10:15-10:30 confirmed the signal, and also made its test likelier during the bias environment.
Actually, 2899.50 was met during the next breath. It was tested and retested while RSIs worked off an overbought condition. Now its reaction down is attacking 2889.00, and anything lower would target 2885.00. While being likely to hold as support, its break could resume the decline.
Closing above Friday’s late 2895.00 high would start to signal a bottom is forming. But closing above Friday’s early 2914.00 high is still needed to signal the trend reversing up.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Still in the woods.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday was defined by two big intraday recoveries, albeit from only one new low. The first drop had developed mostly overnight, and extended momentarily post-open down to 2878.00 — 12-16 points under Friday’s close and still above Friday’s low. It was recovered to attack Friday’s close. The second drop was almost 28 points down to 2866.00, 7 points under Friday’s low. It was also recovered to attack Friday’s close. Two big recoveries, and still in negative territory. Closing back above Thursday’s 2887.75 low for a second consecutive session was constructive, but not a reversal signal. And gaining traction through the afternoon windows wouldn’t be reliable.
Overnight action’s new info…
Shallow sideways ranging down to 2889.00 never probed positive territory, and persisted until Europe’s opens approached. Then the range started breaking lower, and lower. A brief consolidation has now resolved down to fresh overnight lows at 2876.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Monday afternoon’s traction wasn’t influential overnight, leaving this morning, but gapping down isn’t helping. “Unfinished business” left from Friday at 2990.25 remains outstanding above, while Monday’s new unfinished business below at 2880.50 has been neutralized overnight. Testing it is vulnerable to also testing 2867.75, and oversold RSIs at Monday’s 2866.00 low — and then to extending the decline to 2850.00 unless rescued by the attraction to unfinished business above and yesterday afternoon’s upside traction.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2883.00 would be likely to trigger the 2885.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2874.75 would be likely to exceed the 2877.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.