Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2895.50 | 2899.50 |
| …would target | 2903.75 | 2907.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2881.00 | 2885.00 |
| …would target | 2873.25 | 2877.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday included two attempts to extend the decline from last week’s highs. Both were ultimately retraced back above prior lows — Friday’s 2873.25 low and Thursday’s 2887.75 low — but not back above a prior high. The nearest prior high is Friday afternoon’s last-minute attack on 2895.00. It was being attacked at Monday’s close, after the 2890.00 cash session close which was also Friday’s cash session close.
Big intraday recoveries, twice, but not yet reversed up.
Perhaps traction from Monday afternoon’s rally can reverse the trend up. Traction was gained by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high and entering the final hour higher, then trending up through the proxy window. Overnight and/or Tuesday morning should trend up. I’ll want the confirmation of gapping up, since Monday’s session developed exclusively in negative territory.
“Unfinished business” left from Friday at 2990.25 remains outstanding. Add to it unfinished business below at Monday afternoon’s 2880.50 bias-up signal. Both are the product of no-bias trending that has yet to retrace. Each can be neutralized overnight, or left outstanding indefinitely. Testing the lower attraction first would be vulnerable to also testing 2867.75, and oversold RSIs at Monday’s 2866.00 low — and also vulnerable to extending the decline to 2850.00 regardless of unfinished business above.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s inside day didn’t end the decline’s momentum, let alone reverse the confirmed breakout back up after Thursday had fulfilled the decline’s minimum objective. With the decline’s momentum intact, Monday’s open gapped down under all prior lows and ranged narrowly sideways .
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing and testing the 1202.30 sell signal through most of last week seems to be compensating for the break’s delay by gapping down Monday to 1193.00 and extending down intraday to 1186.00. The gap back up to Friday’s close will want to be filled eventually, but the 1172.50 remains intact.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down sharply Monday rejected last week’s ranging around 14.65 and under uptrending support at 14.55, but still requires closing under 14.25 to confirm momentum is reversing down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s Bank and Government holiday sapped both participation and volatility from the market, where narrow ranging formed an inside day that doesn’t reverse the prevailing downtrend.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing off of the 73.90 pullback limit Thursday had stopped short of reversing momentum up above 75.30. Sunday night’s drop to fresh lows attacking 73.05 was already bouncing into Monday’s open, but still stopped short of recovering the 73.90 pullback limit.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping further Friday had held the 2.12 pullback limit which required resuming the rally without delay to avoided reversing the trend down. Gapping up Monday extended to fresh highs that tested 2.29, creating new room for only a corrective dip down to 2.23.
Mid-day Update… Down, and down.
Fresh lows holding.
Tests of both 2881.50 and 2888.00 bias-down parameters were tested and recovered through 10:15. The recovery extended to attack 2893.00, but no higher. In fact, momentum reversed down.
And down.
What could have been a temporary corrective pullback down to the 2881.50 bias-down target suddenly collapsed 15-16 points to 2866.00. The bias environment was exited under the bias-down target and under the open’s lows, invalidating the morning’s bias signal — and its upside attractions.
Ranging back up to 2875.00 barely avoided triggering bias-down under 2867.50. Although the drop hasn’t extended, it has persisted. This morning’s fresh lows could have been isolated by entering the noon hour above prior lows, but now isolation requires exiting the bias environment above a prior high, like 2884.50. Otherwise, the trend remains down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 9, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday morning’s Fed speaker is the only influential econ event for the day, being both high-profile and reliably influential to price action.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET