Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2912.00 | 2918.25 |
| …would target | 2918.75 | 2925.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2902.00 | 2908.00 |
| …would target | 2895.00 | 2901.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s biggest setup formed before the open, and played out mostly before the open, too. It was the late break from a sideways Globex range. Probing 3 points under it to 2906.00 90 minutes before the open was recovered entirely and then extended up to 2917.00 through the first 3 minutes. Its reaction down to 2910.00 was recovered to attack 2919.00. Almost as much, and no more durable. The balance of the session consolidated back to 2912.50.
Trending would have been unusual for a low volume session. A little deeper retracement to 2903.00 wouldn’t have been unusual, but perhaps the opening surge injected too much optimism. That early optimism did hold a test of the morning’s 2915.25 bias-up signal to put into play an offsetting test of its 2908.00 bias-down signal, which became “unfinished business.”
If not for the holiday’s impact on participation and volume, the rally would have resumed already. It’s free to resume Thursday, or overnight, with or without neutralizing 2908.00, which can be done overnight, too. Deeper down to 2903.00 is still likely to hold, and momentum doesn’t even threaten to reverse down from above 2900.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite rejecting the brief probe above 1.17855‘s prior high Tuesday by reversing it to close under 1.1745, Wednesday’s price action only ranged narrowly, still needing to break under 1.1720 to launch a downleg.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday continued bouncing around within the 1210.50-1209.50 range whose break would be likely to trend in that direction.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Momentary strength Wednesday tested the 14.33 buy signal, which otherwise held as resistance to keep alive the potential for probing fresh lows.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sharply lower lows Wednesday fell to 139-23, the lowest levels since May’s bottom. The trend remains down so long as bounces close under 140-04, which was being tested Wednesday afternoon.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Greeting Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of strength was rewarded by rallying through the 70.35 filled gap up to 71.05, all but ensuring the 71.40 prior high will be retested.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday only consolidated Tuesday’s surge that had peaked at 2.93. But holding 2.91 keeps alive the surge’s upside momentum, greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Fair warning and false alarms.
Narrow choppy range behaving normally.
The open’s surge probed its 2915.25 bias-up signal by 2 points and still failed to trigger.
It wasn’t even close, already probing 2 points under 2915.25 to trigger no-bias. And it was confirmed by a fresh post-10:15 low at 2910.00.
Which has been the session low. An offsetting test of this morning’s 2908.00 bias-down signal became “unfinished business.”
Now this afternoon’s no-bias has triggered, too. Its 2912.00 bias-down signal should define the window’s lower-end if tested. Probing it anyway — for example, down to 2908.00 — would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced. Probing it even deeper, to 2903.00 or lower, would still require retracing unless delayed until the bias window begins lapsing.
The narrow choppiness and unfinished business isn’t unusual for the low volume session. Trending up would be unusual, and no sell signal has triggered, but a probe of fresh highs is still possible.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Sep 20, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week’s busiest on the calendar, yet only two reports are both high-profile and influential to price action. Any price reaction to the pre-open reports will likely be duplicated in reaction to the post-open report.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET