Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2918.25 | 2918.25 |
| …would target | 2918.00 | 2924.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2905.75 | 2912.00 |
| …would target | 2901.25 | 2907.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… A last-ditch effort.
Pre-open lows reverse up through the open, then stop.
Overnight action had ranged sideways down to 2909.00. Probing lower 90 minutes before the open reflects late sponsorship that often fails. It failed this time, too, surging from 2906.00 to open unchanged at 2911.50.
More so, the surge extended up to 2917.25. In the first 3 minutes. One hour earlier, the 2908.00 bias-down signal was in jeopardy, and suddenly the 2915.25 bias-up signal is threatening to trigger.
It didn’t.
Triggering no-bias has put into play an offsetting test of the 2908.00 bias-down signal. Price has trended back down to 2910.00. The thin volume environment remains difficult to trend to new extremes, and more vulnerable to retracing recently covered territory.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Narrow ranging.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Probing well under Monday’s 2892.25 low down to 2883.50 was recovered to greet Tuesday’s open at or above 2897.00. Probing lower only overnight formed the basis for an Isolation setup, to be rewarded by recovering Friday’s 2917.25 overnight high. Quickly extending the open up through Monday afternoon’s last relative high at 2903.00 served by proxy to signal the two-day pullback had ended, also implying a recovery of prior highs. Both were fulfilled Tuesday afternoon. Their tests up to 2917.75 held, as the close reacted down to attack 2910.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing up to 2915.25, which is this morning’s bias-up signal, reacted down to 2909.00. Another bounce was shallower, bouncing only to 2913.25, which has defined price action ever since. And currently, the range’s lower-end at 2909.00 is being attacked.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Retesting Friday’s highs shouldn’t be the recovery’s ultimate objective, but incidental to the uplegs now underway. A top should not be forming, although Wednesday might appear that way. The Yom Kippur holiday’s thinner volume will inhibit probing a prior extreme, which enables retracing recently covered ground. A pullback could easily dip to 2903.00 alone as noise. That said, thinning volume can make it difficult to stop price that extends higher anyway, which an appropriate catalyst could trigger.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2909.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2908.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2912.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2915.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2909.25 | 2915.25 |
| …would target | 2914.75 | 2920.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2901.75 | 2908.00 |
| …would target | 2896.75 | 2903.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
As of 3:35pm ET
The Isolation setup’s minimum objective, or reward, is to retrace the last leg’s origin. Which would be a new high for the setup that formed through Tuesday’s open. Tuesday’s open at or above 2897.00, which already exited the afternoon bias environment probing 2 ticks above last week’s 2917.25 “new Globex trend extreme.”
So, that’s done.
Meanwhile, another setup formed by exiting the open above Monday afternoon’s last relative high at 2903.00. Which made up by proxy for Monday’s close not recovering 2897.00. The setup has no particular objective or reward, only the indication of the pullback having ended. So, Tuesday’s retest of Friday’s highs should extend, and not form a top.
Not necessarily in a straight line. Thinner volume during Wednesday’s Yom Kippur holiday will inhibit extending the trend, while a pullback could easily dip to 2903.00 alone as noise. Thinning volume can also make it difficult to stop price that extends higher anyway.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.