Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 18, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No high-profile reports are scheduled Tuesday. But the post-open report is likely to duplicate any price reaction to the pre-open report.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2903.00 | 2909.00 |
| …would target | 2910.50 | 2916.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2895.50 | 2901.50 |
| …would target | 2890.50 | 2896.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Detour and delay.
Open retesting overnight low.
Last night’s pullback to 2904.00 had recovered after Europe’s opens, retesting Friday’s 2911.25 close. Its reaction down was recovered to 2910.25 through the open. But its touch reversed down sharply, and has extended lower to 2903.50.
Meanwhile, this morning’s 2907.00 bias-down signal triggered cleanly, putting into play 2900.25. Back above 2908.00 could trigger a premature recovery attempt, which is unlikely.
The bullish scenario largely depends on fulfilling 2900.25 sooner, rather than later. That would allow time to start recovering into a late-afternoon rally. RSIs haven’t even gotten oversold, yet, and a bottom probably doesn’t happen without sellers breaking at least a little sweat.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Trade Wars fighting for attention.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s open was greeted at the morning’s 2912.25 bias-up signal, and only probed it momentarily before dipping back into Thursday’s range. Higher highs had been probed up to 2917.25 overnight into and out of Europe’s opens, forming a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest. But that was left outstanding while the morning dipped back down to 2906.50 and the afternoon fell to 2902.00. But a late afternoon surge returned to Thursday’s 2912.00 high, and the 2911.25 close was slightly positive on the day.
Overnight action’s new info…
Trade war headlines Sunday afternoon triggered a gap down Sunday night. But it was relatively shallow at 2909.00, even after sliding to 2904.00. Narrow ranging there into Europe’s opens was reversed up to Friday’s 2911.25 close. Its reaction down is now testing 2906.00-2907.00 as support.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s close was a new trend high, but not above prior intraday highs, which would have entrenched the rally. Recovering from more backing-and-filling is possible, but the rally requires no more of that. So, resuming the rally today requires gapping up or else waiting until late afternoon. Gapping up would have been probing higher usually by now — there’s still time, but it needs to be obvious soon. Meanwhile, bubbling and percolating with probes into positive territory testing 2914.50 would help to pass time while awaiting a clear window to rally. Otherwise, extending the pullback has room to test 2987.00 without beginning to threaten reversing the trend down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2903.50 would be likely to trigger the 2907.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2908.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 9/15/18) … How high?
The market’s new highs this week may be competing against Hurricane Florence for mainstream attention. That relative anonymity could be one of the more bullish factors, from a contrarian perspective. There’s also the upcoming expiration — Quad Witch, no less — which is unlikely to accompany a trend extreme. And just the ongoing bigger picture, a massive Complex Ascending Triangle that we’ve been discussing for months, whose minimum targets are being met only now.
How does that play out Sunday night and Monday morning, and into the week? We game out several paths, and entertain the potential for it all to go to pot instead… Speaking of which, I also update several previously highlighted Cannabis sector stocks and formally introduce a new one.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
TLRY, CGC, TGODF, IIPR, AMD, WDC, SYMC
transcript
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review… Please post comments and questions as they occur to you.
—————– (09/15/2018 09:32) —————–
Bill G: gm
David B: Good Morning
jp: gm
—————– (09/15/2018 09:34) —————–
Mark: gm
—————– (09/15/2018 10:00) —————–
Bill G: The ym had been lagging but this wk had relative strength. Maybe a top will be made at or near a new ath?
—————– (09/15/2018 10:04) —————–
Bill G: y
Bill G: Will get a lot of press
—————– (09/15/2018 10:08) —————–
David B: AMD – is this in a up crash?
—————– (09/15/2018 10:09) —————–
David B: WDC – is this is stock in a down crash?
—————– (09/15/2018 10:23) —————–
David B: jan candidate?
—————– (09/15/2018 10:24) —————–
Bill G: on wdc, what leg did you use to compute your targets?
David B: GE possible on the list as jan candidate?
—————– (09/15/2018 10:26) —————–
Bill G: already a tax loss
—————– (09/15/2018 10:27) —————–
David B: what about symc is this a candidate?
—————– (09/15/2018 10:31) —————–
Mark: thx much
Bill G: have a good one
David B: Thanks