Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2909.50 | 2915.50 |
| …would target | 2913.75 | 2919.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2901.00 | 2907.00 |
| …would target | 2893.25 | 2900.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Finally breaking higher into and out of Europe’s opens probed fresh recovery highs overnight up to 2917.25. That was back into the Aug 29 high session’s range, almost filling the gap back to its close, and retracing 38.2% of the range at its intraday highs. The action was just complex enough to be considered a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest.
But not necessarily the same day. And not Friday. The open was greeted back at the morning’s 2912.25 bias-up signal, which probed back under overnight lows and into Thursday’s range down to 2907.00. Recovering to 2912.25 stagnated, before collapsing in reaction to a trade war headline. Extending down to 2902.00 coming out of the noon hour finally fulfilled the morning’s no-bias objective.
The afternoon trended back up to retrace the 2912.75 origin of the trade war headline’s knee-jerk reaction. That was also a retest of the morning’s bias-up signal, and a 61.8% retracement of the congestion which had developed there before the morning’s collapse. Buyers once again failed to gain traction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US FOR THE SATURDAY MORNING REVIEW AT 9:30 AM ET.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing Thursday’s 1.1700high overnight was retraced already into Friday’s open, and the morning extended down to test the 1.1645 sell signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing overnight shallowly back above the 1209.50 buy signal was rejected even more substantially than was Wednesday’s probe, testing the 1201.50 sell signal.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Attacking the 14.33 buy signal again was rejected through Friday morning down to 14.10. Unless another rally were attempted coming out of the weekend, a drop to fresh lows is now likely.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Potential for forming a bottom wasn’t exploited as Friday’s open gapped down to and through Tuesday’s 142-00 close that already had held a test at Thursday’s open. The close under a multi-session range is a breakout, which a second consecutive lower close Monday would confirm. But the proximity to prior lows enables early strength Monday to test 142-26.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Attacking the 67.80 sell signal to within 15 cents Friday morning was recovered to probe momentarily above the 69.50 pullback limit. Its recovery through the close would target a retest of 71.20, probably through 71.40.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength didn’t ensure any reaction, let alone triggering the 2.87 buy signal which held. Nor has it prevented a break back down toward Monday’s 2.75 low.
Mid-day Update… No, he’s not a subscriber.
Trump tariff talk triggers tumble to target.
Opening at this morning’s 2912.25 bias-up signal didn’t recover it, and didn’t trigger it. An offsetting test of the morning’s 2903.25 bias-down signal was put into play. 
That didn’t stop bouncing back up to 2912.25, but its test defined the no-bias window’s upper-end.
Probing 2912.25 during the morning’s no-bias window would have required its retracement. Probing it after that wouldn’t have required its retracement, not directly, only indirectly while fulfilling “unfinished business” at 2903.25.
And maybe 2912.25 was going to be probed. We won’t know, because a trade war headline triggered a spike down that attacked the open’s 2909.50 low. Trending through it to 2902.00 has neutralized the unfinished business.
2903.25 is also this afternoon’s bias-down target. Its test has held, but the 2909.00 bias-down signal triggered cleanly. It’s still a bias-down environment that can extend lower. The window can also bounce back up to 2909.00, and higher after the bias window starts lapsing. The headline reaction can be retraced back up to its 2912.25 origin.