Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Sep 17, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’ Fed survey has no track record for influencing price action, antough it can be high-profile.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2909.50 | 2915.50 |
| …would target | 2914.50 | 2920.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2903.00 | 2909.00 |
| …would target | 2897.25 | 2903.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Fast fizzle.
Overnight highs abandoned.
Rallying into and out of Europe’s opens up to 2917.25 contained just enough complexity to consider it a “new Globex trend extreme.” 
That requires its intraday retest, often the same day, but not necessarily.
Retesting the overnight high today isn’t looking good. Opening at the 2912.25 bias-up signal held its resistance to trigger no-bias. This puts into play an offsetting test of the 2903.25 bias-down signal. Often the same day.
Fulfilling the bias objective isn’t looking much better. The signal has yet to produce a retest of the 2905.50 pre-10:15 low. And the 2912.25 bias-up signal is now being retested as resistance.
Fluctuating around 2912.25 is still likely to hold, and back under 2910.00 would signal momentum reversing down. But exceeding the range around 2912.25 would be credible for “no-bias trending” back up to the overnight high, a detour that would require being retraced.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Back at the highs.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday was likely to extend Wednesday’s rally, and the open was required to gap up if the rally was going to resume. Indeed, Thursday’s 2905.00 open was already 5 points above Wednesday’s high and 15 points above the overnight low, and a brief consolidation resolved up sharply to 2912.00. Reacting down to 2902.00 stopped optimistically short of touching Wednesday’s “lower prior highs,” which was an appropriate characteristic for this stage of ending the two-week old pullback. The reaction was recovered to within 1 tick of the open’s high — stopping pessimistically short, which tends to be bullish from a contrarian perspective. The balance of the session ranged choppily, narrowly sideways to the highest close since August’s high at 2910.25.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday afternoon’s narrow, choppy range persisted through midnight, dipping only to 2907.50. Breaking higher into and out of Europe’s opens tested 2917.00. A pullback down to 2913.25 is now trying to resume the rally.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Dipping only to 2902.00 Thursday created a position of strength, or anchor, that allows a deeper dip to “lower prior highs” at 2897.00 if needed. Thursday afternoon’s extra dip may already have checked that box, which we’ll know by Friday’s open maintaining a gap up. Gapping up is necessary to resume the rally immediately, since Thursday’s rally didn’t gain traction for its effort. Being a Friday, the morning’s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. Other reliably predictive Friday Factors may come into play in the afternoon.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2915.25 would be likely to trigger the 2912.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2909.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2906.75 | 2912.25 |
| …would target | 2914.25 | 2919.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2897.75 | 2903.25 |
| …would target | 2891.50 | 2897.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.