Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s post-open rally was no more impressive than walking from here to there. Unless here to there is along a tightrope. In which case, Thursday’s post-open rally was impressive for not falling.
The 2905.00 open was already 5 points above Wednesday’s high and 15 points above the overnight low. Post-open action initially consolidated, but then surged to 2912.00. Reacting down to 2902.00 was recovered to within 1 tick of the open’s high — stopping pessimistically short, which tends to be bullish from a contrarian perspective. And by the way, dipping only to 2902.00 avoided touching Wednesday’s high, which creates a position of strength, or anchor, that allows a deeper dip to “lower prior highs” at 2897.00 if needed.
If needed. Which it shouldn’t be. The balance of Thursday afternoon ranged narrowly sideways, and already included an extra dip, reducing the potential for another one overnight. Dipping overnight anyway has room for noise down to 2903.00. Meanwhile, Thursday’s rally is likely to resume Friday morning. And since the rally didn’t gain traction Thursday afternoon, resuming it without delay Friday all but requires gapping up.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Favorable reaction to Thursday’s ECB meeting and especially to ECB Chair’s Draghi’s comments triggered a surge up to 1.1700. If that’s the recently formed Symmetrical Triangle’s false break, then back under 1.1600 would signal the trend reversing back down more substantially.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s probe above the 1209.50 buy signal didn’t extend any higher overnight, but it surged up to 1218.00 momentarily Thursday morning. Reacting back down under 1207.00 would be likely to trend down sharply into the weekend on almost any initial weakness Friday.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 14.33 buy signal continued holding as resistance overnight and was pierced only briefly Thursday morning. Almost any initial weakness Friday would be likely to trend down into the weekend.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging overnight greeted Thursday’s open at the gap back down to Tuesday’s 142-00 close. Surging probed above Wednesday’s highs, a couple of times. There is no unfinished business above if the pattern wants to establish a bottom with a second consecutive higher close Friday.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
After fulfilling the minimum upside objective at 71.20 Wednesday, overnight action tested the 69.50 pullback limit. Gapping down to it Friday extended through it to retest the original 68.40 buy signal. Closing above 69.50 would keep alive the upside momentum, and the attraction to retesting the 71.40 overnight high. Closing under 67.80 would resume the decline.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength didn’t have much reaction either way. But the bottoming pattern was unshaken, indirectly confirming it and the likelihood for soon rallying.
Mid-day Update… Pause to reflect.
No-bias window, which will lapse.
This morning’s surge to 2012.00 was retraced ultimately back under the 2905.00 open down to 2901.75. 
The reversal’s likely objective was 2903.00, and every bar printing under it was also overlapping it. So, sellers never triggered a lower objective.
Rallying back into the noon hour quickly peaked within 1 tick of 2012.00. Flat-to-lower ranging since then has held the 2910.25 bias-up signal as resistance. The bias window is being entered at 2907.00, with room down to its 2905.50 bias-down signal.
Trending again today isn’t required, but I’d be a little surprised if the balance of the session only ranged into the close. There are quite a few multi-tick sentiment extremes (highlighted yellow in the chart), i.e. not singular errant ticks. Price action may be range-bound for now, but there seems to be an interest in trending.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 14, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open Retail Sales isn’t often surprising enough to trigger a price reaction. But any price reaction that it does trigger would likely be duplicated by post-open reports, especially by the high-profile and influential Consumer Sentiment.
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Charles Evans Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2904.50 | 2910.25 |
| …would target | 2909.75 | 2915.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2889.75 | 2905.50 |
| …would target | 2893.75 | 2899.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.