Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2883.00 | 2883.50 |
| …would target | 2888.25 | 2888.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2874.25 | 2875.00 |
| …would target | 2868.00 | 2868.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Fresh low absorbed.
Both bias parameters rejected.
The pre-open Employment Situation report was greeted at 2875.00. Its reaction spiked down to 2869.00, which extended down to 2866.00 through the open. 
A retest down to 2865.00 was recovered, back above both the 2868.75 bias-down target and the 2875.25 bias-down signal.
Maintaining recoveries from testing both through 10:15 has put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters — 2886.75 and 2892.25. Unfinished business at 2895.50 would likely be a part of that mix.
Nothing prevents a straight path up. Also, nothing requires it, even if we knew with 100% certainty the upside will be fulfilled today. But exiting the bias environment rallying through 2884.50-2886.75 would start to suggest a short-squeeze into the weekend.
Meanwhile, exiting the bias environment in negative territory under 2880.25 would be less reliable for rallying this afternoon. And back under 2875.00 would re-open the door to 2857.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Pessimism into the numbers.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s first half-hour ranged around unchanged at 2999.00-2889.00. But the attraction to retest Wednesday’s oversold RSIs at its 2877.25 low pulled price down to 2869.00 before the bias window lapsed. A bounce held a test of 2877.25 before retesting the low by another point down to 2868.00 as the after noon bias window opened. Rallying back up to 2884.50 failed to close higher, testing 2880.25 as support through the close .
Overnight action’s new info…
Not much has developed overnight as the market waits for this morning’s Employment Situatiopn report. Globex initially attacked 2871.00 as support through Asia’s opens, and then eventually tested 2881.00 as resistance into Europe’s opens. Reacting back down has attacked 2872.00 as support, with the payrolls report just 90 minutes away.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Recovering 2880.25 and 2884.50 Thursday would have sealed a bottom and greeted this morning’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength. Perhaps that was prevented by pessimism ahead of the report, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Absent that, gapping up sufficiently — like, above Thursday morning’s 2893.00 high — could serve by proxy for buyers to gain traction and rally sharply higher through the morning, initially attracted to Wednesday afternoon’s 2895.50 bias objective that is “unfinished business” above. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 2857.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary indications aren’t considered ahead of Employment Situation reports.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2886.25 | 2886.75 |
| …would target | 2861.75 | 2892.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2874.50 | 2875.25 |
| …would target | 2868.00 | 2868.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Retesting Wednesday’s oversold RSIs at its 2877.25 low had room for noise down to 2875.00. Probing it down to 2868.00 may 
have been too much to absorb before extending down to 2857.00. Or, probing it down to 2868.00 may have been absorbed. The difference is in whether its reaction back up was able to close above a relevant resistance.
It didn’t.
2880.25 was still being overlapped into the close, after 2884.50 had contained the afternoon rally. So, rather than recover these levels to essentially isolate sellers, buyers expended as much energy as possible while still not gaining traction for their effort.
Of course, there’s another difference, made possible by the heightened sentiment ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. If recovering relevant resistance is simply delayed, then Friday’s open can serve by proxy. But the standard is higher, like gapping up above Thursday morning’s 2893.00 high. And maintaining it. And extending it.
Meanwhile, Wednesday afternoon’s 2895.50 bias objective remains “unfinished business” above that could attract price higher, and facilitate a test of 2893.00. No unfinished business lies below, so trending down post-open anyway would be that much more bearish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.