Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s extension of Tuesday’s post-open bounce probed slightly higher overnight, but Thursday’s flat-to-lower ranging needs to represent the decline’s resumption to keep in-play lower objectives.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up to attack 1213.00 Thursday was retraced entirely to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s 1203.00 close, and to maintain the likelihood for resolving down to fresh lows at 1272.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight firming up to 14.35 didn’t reach high enough for a retest of Tuesday’s gap down to neutralize its downside attraction.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s 143-02 low had held as support Wednesday, and launched a bounce back up to the 143-18 sell signal ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. That’s not high enough to greet the report from a position of strength.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The break under the 69.50 pullback limit extended down to 67.00 on Thursday’s (delayed) EIA report. Back above 68.40 would now signal momentum reversing up, targeting a retest of 71.20-71.40 to likely form a durable top.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already extended down Thursday 2.77 fulfills the minimum third lower close required by the confirmed breakout. The trend can extend down so long as 2.85 isn’t recovered.
Mid-day Update… Fallen and can’t get up.
Room for noise being probed.
This morning’s drop eventually extended down to 2869.00, well under the 2882.25 bias-down signal. Bias-down didn’t trigger, and noN-bias was narrowly avoided, but we gave it a benefit of the doubt anyway because of the 1-tick difference.
Room for noise under yesterday’s low down to 2875.00 was itself exceeded by 7 points down to 2869.00. A close-quarters Double Bottom bounced only to test 2878.00 into noon, and the noon hour’s exit tested 2868.00.
This afternoon’s 2871.00 bias-down signal has held its test to trigger no-bias. And now RSIs aren’t simultaneously oversold at the low. No timing window has yet recovered a relevant level like 2880.25 or 2884.50 to invalidate the decline. Back above 2875.25-2876.00 (being tested now) would start to signal a recovery underway. Back under 2870.00 would signal the recovery had failed.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 7, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The monthly Employment Situation report is being released in a relative vacuum Friday morning with no other reports scheduled. There’s still a Fed speaker or two nearby, and their remarks can also keep volatility active, to the degree that either accentuates or contradicts the report .
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
8:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2882.25 | 2883.00 |
| …would target | 2887.50 | 2888.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2870.25 | 2871.00 |
| …would target | 2863.00 | 2863.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Buyers stiffed.
Post-open bounce traps longs, sellers pounce.
Greeting the open unchanged at 2888.00-2889.00 was essentially a standing-stop. That’s a difficult and dangerous setup to pick one resolution or the other. 
Not only for the lack of momentum, but also for the attraction to unchanged that would likely inhibit or doom a post-open trending attempt.
At least a narrowing range greeted the open, too, so some trending attempt or attempts would be possible. And there were trending attempts. First a dip down to 2885.50 and then its reaction up to almost 2893.00. Both overlapped unchanged, and that influence wasn’t finished, as another reversal slid back into negative territory at 2880.25.
The grace period was invoked, and very narrowly triggered no-bias. But as I described in real-time in the chaRTroom, we’re treating it as a noN-bias that doesn’t have any bias requirement. Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at yesterday’s 2877.25 low has been neutralized.
It’s being probed down to 2871.50, under room for noise. And it must be rejected back above 2880.25 or optimally 2884.50 through a relevant timing window to avoid putting into play 2857.00. Back above 2878.00 would be the first signal a recovery is being attempted.