Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Been here, downed that.
Back to ranging at the lows.
The open didn’t gap up above any relevant level (or gap up at all) to even try negating the traction sellers gained yesterday.
Lower lows were likely. None of which prevented surging at the open, but only to touch the 2907.50 bias-up signal — and then not to trigger it.
That put into play an offsetting test of the 2898.25 bias-down signal. The open had been greeted there. So, a test of it was in-play, but not testing it wouldn’t be required. It was tested anyway, as the bias window lapsed.
Extending lower during the noon hour tested unfinished business at 2892.25. Piercing it by 2 ticks was enough to launch a reaction attacking 2898.00, and to avoid triggering bias-down.
Sellers are probably done for the day. Buyers may be done, too, although there’s room up to the 2899.00 bias-up signal and then higher after the bias window starts lapsing. But even if thee’s a bounce back under 2893.75 would start to signal lower lows into the weekend, next targeting 2884.50 down to 2880.25.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Sep 3, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Happy Labor Day. Stock markets are closed in the U.S.. Globex opens normally Sunday night, and trades through Monday morning, before re-opening normally Monday night. The Fed speaker isn’t likely to influence price action.
Globex open
Sunday 6:00 PM
Globex close
1:00 PM
Charles Evans speaks
2:30 PM ET
Globex re-opens
6:00 PM
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2898.75 | 2899.00 |
| …would target | 2904.00 | 2904.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2894.00 | 2894.25 |
| …would target | 2887.75 | 2888.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Last-minute leaks.
Bias signal delayed at last-minute, again.
It happened yesterday morning, too, sort of. This morning was on its way to triggering no-bias, cleanly recovering above the 2989.25 bias-down signal by 10:15. 
That would have put into play an offsetting test of its 2907.50 bias-up signal.
In fact, 2907.50 was touched… within 3 minutes of 10:15. Suddenly, the clean no-bias invoked the grace period. And the grace period has held to trigger no-bias.
Yesterday morning the bias signal being tested within 3 minutes of 10:15 was the only bias signal that had been touched. That’s more common, resolving either in triggering the bias, or not triggering it. And not triggering it resolves either in no-bias or noN-bias.
This morning the bias signal that invoked the grace period is the second bias signal tested. Trending from one bias signal to the other entirely within the opening period is rare. It reflects as much sentiment as triggering a bias and trending to its target.
So, sellers were almost marginalized by failing at an attempt to trigger bias-down. Rewarding buyers so quickly forced them to confirm their control, which failed. Effectively sellers get a second chance by default.
An offsetting test of the 2898.25 bias-down signal is in-play. Having been tested already, it won’t become “unfinished business” if not met this morning. This is still a no-bias environment, so probing beyond either bias signal — extending any higher — would require being retraced.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Not rejecting the late plunge.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap down to 2909.00 had ultimately extended to exit the bias window at fresh session lows down to 2904.00. The afternoon’s 2911.00 bias-up signal triggered, but extending to its 2918.00 was prevented by an afternoon headline that triggered a plunge to 2895.50, closing at 2902.00. Closing under 2909.00 failed to confirm higher trend objectives that were signaled Wednesday, and afternoon sellers gained traction for their effort. But new unfinished business above at 2918.00 suggests the dip will be recovered.
Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing through midnight touched the morning’s 2904.00 low, and greeted Europe’s opens unchanged at yesterday’s 2902.00 close. Collapsing 5 points was retraced back up to 2902.00, but only to 2902.00, and has since extended to attack yesterday’s 2895.50 low to within 1 tick.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Thinning volume ahead of the 3-day holiday weekend has two contradictory consequences. While the market is robbed of natural volatility, it is also vulnerable to knee-jerk reactions triggered by artificial catalysts. Yesterday morning’s range around its gap down exemplifies the non-volatility, and the afternoon’s headline plunge reflects the vulnerability. But not all headlines get a reaction, and even while overnight weakness is attributed to continued overnight weakness among emerging markets, yesterday’s low still holds. That doesn’t prevent extending down further this morning, as already suggested by yesterday afternoon’s traction, with unfinished business below at 2892.25.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2897.50 would be likely to trigger the 2898.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2903.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.