Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wedneday’s open gapped down to the 1.1675 sell signal and immediately bounced into slightly positive territory. Filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s close neutralizes its attraction above, better enabling sellers if they can trigger the sell signal through the close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping overnight tested the 1207.50 sell signal by almost $1, but Wednesday’s intraday action only hovered slightly above it. Its break would initially target 1191.50 and potentially 1172.50.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 14.69 sell signal was tested overnight by at least a dime, but less so intraday Wednesday. Its break would target 14.45 and probably also retest the 14.30 low.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing under the 144-19 sell signal Tuesday didn’t extend lower overnight. Wednesday morning probed a fresh low at 144-08 that also didn’t immediately extend lower. Not closing lower Wednesday would not confirm Tuesday’s break.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s gap up from the three-day test of 68.00-68.25 pullback limit extended through Friday’s 69.30 high to 69.75, while still targeting 70.55.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Oct which trades at a 2-cent discount from Sep]… Gapping up Wednesday was reversed back down through the morning to retest the 2.83 target that Tuesday had fulfilled already. RSIs improved, but only triggering the 2.87 buy signal can diminish the potential for extending lower.
Mid-day Update… Still ticking.
Post-open surge extends up sharply.
Ranging relatively narrowly at or under this morning’s 2902.50 bias-up signal did eventually break higher in time to invoke the grace period. And it did trigger. 
Consolidating at its 2909.00 bias-up target developed an Ascending Triangle continuation pattern, which also eventually broke higher.
This morning’s 2916.00 high has since held as resistance, while an extremely narrow noon hour range hovered there.
Beware the first break from an extended narrowing range, which is often false. Especially if it’s alluring. So, almost literally exploding higher would be vulnerable to reversing back down, especially without triggering the 2818.00 bias-up signal.
Otherwise, the most bearish scenario for this afternoon may be sideways ranging, backing and filling to the 2908.00 bias-down signal. The morning’s vulnerability to reversing the trend down is much less so this afternoon… at least, until the final hour.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 30, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s Clams is high-profile, but has no current reliable track record for influencing price action. The day’s other report has neither the influence nor the profile.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2917.25 | 2918.00 |
| …would target | 2924.25 | 2925.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2907.00 | 2908.00 |
| …would target | 2901.25 | 2902.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Avoiding another reversal.
Or, has it only been delayed?
Last night’s bounce to 2905.00 was reversed back to unchanged at 2899.25 before the open. 
And that was probed momentarily down to 2897.50.
But retracing doesn’t equate to reversing.
Firming into the 2901.75 opening print also touched this morning’s 2901.50 bias-up signal, and the test was on. Touching would require either triggering it to put in-play its bias-up target, or holding it to put in-play an offsetting test of its bias-down signal.
Invoking the grace period resolved up, quickly compensating for the delay. Intraday tests of the gap back to yesterday’s 2903.25 open and the 2906.25 “new Globex trend extreme” are now done. Their likely higher objective at 2909.00 is being met, too.
I’m not ruling out a reversal into negative territory. Probably not while RSIs remain overbought at the most recent high. And probably not if already reversing down into noon. New highs can also become much, much higher new highs, so I’m definitely not selling before a signal triggers.