Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Squeezing in a dip?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2803.00 was already retracing the 2906.25 pre-open high, which was a “new Globex trend extreme.” The balance of the morning trended down to 2894.25, then ranged sideways back up to 2901.00 through the close. It was the third consecutive morning to trend through the bias window’s 11:30-noon exit. And it was the fourth consecutive afternoon to range sideways, gaining no traction. The morning’s 2892.25 bias objective is “unfinished business” below.
Overnight action’s new info…
Upon further thought? Tuesday afternoon’s range immediately broke higher, reaching 2905.00 by midnight. Ranging narrowly there started breaking lower into Europe’s opens, back to unchanged at 2899.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The 2906.25 new Globex trend extreme requires an eventual intraday retest. So does the gap back up to Tuesday’s 2903.00 opening print, being above all prior highs. Their retest is likely to extend up to 2909.00. Their retests seemed to be underway last night, until the initial overnight rally was retraced back down to its origin. But not reversed… not, yet. Any dipping ahead of holiday bullishness should be completed today or early tomorrow. Unfinished business below at 2892.25 could be tested down to 2884.50 or 2880.25.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2901.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2902.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2898.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2893.25 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2902.00 | 2902.50 |
| …would target | 2908.50 | 2909.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2892.50 | 2893.25 |
| …would target | 2887.25 | 2888.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Isolating a session’s trending effort to only part of the day isn’t unusual. Isolating it to the same part of the day for several consecutive sessions isn’t impossible. That, and then each of those days behaving the same way during the rest of the sessions… unusual.
Yet Tuesday was the third consecutive session to trend throughout the morning. Or through most of the morning. Or, anyway, to confine trending to the morning, and to be defined by it. And it was the fourth consecutive afternoon to range sideways — defined as the morning bias window’s 11:30-noon exit defining the afternoon’s range. No traction is gained.
The go-and-stop action reflects common sponsorship. And that sponsorship has been pretty productive. But it’s running out of steam and into difficulty. Tuesday’s 2899.25 cash session close was flat with Monday’s high, and touching its 2906.25 bias-up target pre-open responded immediately to buying pressure being met.
Meanwhile, there’s still unfinished business above, in the overnight high being a “new Globex trend extreme.” And that’s likely to be tested up to 2909.00. All of which might be delayed by unfinished business below at 2892.25, which could easily be tested down to 2884.50 or 2880.25. And there’s little time to fit in a dip before the the 3-day holiday weekend’s bullish influence arrives.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday peaked upon retracing 61.8% of the May-Aug descending triangle. The sell signal can be raised to 1.1675.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s high had touched the lower-end of the 1215.00-1220.00 corrective bounce objective. Its upper-end was pierced overnight, before reversing back down under 1215.00 through Tuesday’s open. Back under 1207.50 would resume the decline targeting 1272.50.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight follow-through on Monday’s close above 14.79 stopped short of its 15.05 potential and got to only 14.95 before reversing back down to 14.79 through Tuesday morning. Closing under 14.67 would target 14.45 and probably also fresh lows to compensate for the detour’s delay.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s dip back down to Friday morning’s 145-02 low gapped down slightly and extended lower during the morning to 144-10. Its reaction tested 144-19 as resistance, whose break would signal a deeper pullback underway next targeting the original 143-11 buy signal.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s pullback to the upper-end of the 68.00-68.25 pullback limit had bounced overnight back up to Monday’s 69.20 high. But fresh lows into the noon hour retested Monday’s low, still needing to hold the pullback limit to maintain upside momentum targeting 70.55.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The decline extended through Tuesday morning to fulfill its minimum 2.85 target. Back above 2.90 would start to signal momentum reversing up. Meanwhile, the decline is vulnerable to extending down to 2.79.
Mid-day Update… Overheated.
Working off an overbought, and more.
Rallying straight down from the open through noon has opened the door to an even deeper pullback. But still only temporary, because of another door opened at the high.
Literally, at the high. Or, highs. Complexity during the 2906.25 overnight high formed a “new Globex trend extreme.” The setup requires intraday retest. And the 2903.00 opening print is above all prior highs, requiring it to be filled from below. Neither retest must fulfilled today.
The door that opened to a deeper pullback is from breaking under the 2900.00 bias-up signal to trigger the morning’s no-bias signal. An offsetting test of its 2892.25 bias-down signal has become “unfinished business below.”
This afternoon’s bias window is bouncing to attack its 2901.50 bias-up signal. It’s unlikely to be triggered during the no-bias window. The window starts lapsing soon, and the unfinished business can below can be left outstanding by a retest of the highs — with room up to 2909.00. Otherwise, the pullback is free to resume.