Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 29, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar isn’t slow, and some of it is high-profile. GDP is very high-profile. But none of it — not even GDP — has a track record for influencing price action. Nevertheless, if any of the pre-open items does seem to trigger a reaction, then the post-open items will likely do the same.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2901.00 | 2901.50 |
| …would target | 2907.25 | 2908.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2893.00 | 2893.75 |
| …would target | 2886.25 | 2887.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Ahead of itself.
Trending down from a gap up.
The 2906.25 bias-up target was touched before the open. It was too long before the open to be considered as met. So, failing to hold above the 2900.00 bias-up signal only puts into play an offsetting test of the 2892.25 bias-down signal.
An offsetting test of the 2886.25 bias-down target is not in-play. But not holding the 2892.25 bias-down signal’s test could extend lower anyway — probably to 2884.50.
Meanwhile, buyers aren’t marginalized. This is a late no-bias, since the bias-up signal was touched within 3 minutes of 10:15 invoke the grace period, and then broken through 10:30.
Even then, that was the bias-up signal’s first post-open touch — I’m always suspicious of late efforts. Overnight lows were just probed by 3 ticks down to 2896.75, which helps to confirm the downside. But back above 2901.50 could take a much bigger detour up, first.
A chaRTroom platform upgrade… REMINDER.
If you access the chaRTroom using Windows, then this announcement from Adobe applies to you. The gist is that an upgrade will be forced on us by Labor Day. CLICK HERE to download it now if you haven’t yet, so any issues can be addressed prior to September 3.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Probing new highs. Twice.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap up to 2888.50 is above all prior highs, and will want to be retested from below if the trend tries to reverse down. Its 2898.00 cash session close already fulfills for an eventual higher close as required by having made a new trend high close on a Friday. Monday trended up to close above the morning’s 2897.00 high, but under the 2899.25 noon hour high. The session high was within 3 ticks of the next higher objective at 2900.00. No traction was gained for the effort, since the bias window exit and final hour’s entry were under their prior timing window’s highs.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex immediately began probing yesterday’s high. Hesitation at 2901.00 soon resolved up to attack 2904.00. Already dipping back to 2901.00 by midnight extended down to test yesterday’s cash session close by 2 ticks at 2897.50. Now a bounce is probing back above yesterday’s highs, and trying to recover 2901.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Not gaining traction for yesterday’s rally isn’t necessarily bearish. It means that its sponsorship’s buying pressure was fulfilled. This is also measurable by having met and held the next higher objective within 3 ticks of the 2900.00 doubly-renewed bias-up target. Resuming the trend Tuesday morning isn’t likely without gapping up above Monday’s highs — which is currently indicated. A concern about the trend’s durability is now its impatience in probing a round number — 2900.00 ES, and 26,000 Dow — instead of expressing restrained optimism. Not gaining traction yesterday and holding a test of its next higher objective make the NEXT higher objective at 2909.00 extra vulnerable to reversing down. Meanwhile, having probed yesterday’s high overnight and then reversing to the earlier overnight lows at 2898.50, exiting the open any lower would reverse momentum down for at least the morning — and help to relieve excess optimism.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2896.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2900.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2901.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.