Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2899.50 | 2900.00 |
| …would target | 2905.75 | 2906.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2891.50 | 2892.25 |
| …would target | 2885.50 | 2886.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Trending up from the open through the morning.What else is new. Not that this pattern has repeated daily, but it has been the likely path up when taken. Higher to a morning or noon peak, and then sideways through the close.
The pattern is no less vulnerable to reversing down from Monday’s 2898.00 cash session close than it was at Thursday and Friday’s closes. And a reversal down would likely track one of two paths — either already trending down overnight, or else blipping-up at the open into a Wile E. Coyote cliffhanger moment. Pullback objectives remain 2867.25-2869.50 if not also 2860.00-2861.50.
Not already trending down at Tuesday’s open or soon after it could instead resume the rally, which is essentially next targeting 2909.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming temporarily Sunday night was followed Monday morning to fresh highs including the next higher resistance at 1.1700. The current sell signal at 1.1600 will be raised.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s surge up to 1215.00 had much more room available for a pullback than just 1209.50, which was recovered to fresh highs attacking 1220.00 resistance.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s fluctuation around 14.78 resistance where Friday once again close was somewhat improved Monday, having potential for a temporary detour to 15.05 before fulfilling an intraday test of 14.45.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s post-close blip-up to fresh recovery highs at 145-29 was touched Sunday night, and then retraced back down to Friday’s 145-02 low Monday. The ineffectual pessimism had started to become restrained optimism, which is an unnecessary stage on the way to surging.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging Sunday night held the upper-end of 68.00-68.25 support, maintaining the upside target at 70.55.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s dip extended lower Sunday night to within a nickel of the pullback’s 2.85 objective, and then another 2-cents closer intraday.
Mid-day Update… Cannons et clairons.
War with Mexico ends with a celebratory event.
Il faut acheter au son du canon et vendre au son du clairon? Warren Buffet is reported to have cited this quote, 
“buy on the cannons and sell on the bugles.” The war with Mexico has ended — or, at least, the trade war against the world, Mexico division. Now, music!
So, the next higher objective is this morning’s doubly-renewed bias-up target at 2900.00. The noon hour attacked it to within 3 ticks, (to within 1 tick of the afternoon’s bias-up signal), while RSIs diverged negatively. The entire noon hour hovered narrowly at its highs, until exiting the noon hour in decline.
Back under 2896.00 would signal momentum reversing down. This afternoon’s 2893.00 bias-down signal would need to define the window’s extreme if tested, which could mean recovering from 2886.25 or 2883.75. Rallying through 2899.50 by 1:30 would have no such restraint on the upside.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 28, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is very busy, and a little high-profile, too. But only one report has a reliable track record for influencing price action. It’s post-open, so it’s likely to duplicate the obvious reaction to any pre-open report.
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET