Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2877.25 | 2878.00 |
| …would target | 2882.25 | 2883.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2869.00 | 2869.50 |
| …would target | 2860.75 | 2861.25 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s rally was impressive. Probing prior highs wasn’t surprising, as we were expecting the interim reaction down to be only temporary. Still, the rally did miss an opportunity to further entrench itself by closing at a new trend high on a Friday. That would have required at least another eventual new high close.
Another new high close is still possible, but not any more required than it would have been. Exiting the afternoon bias window entering the final hour within the prior timing window’s range failed to gain traction. But the rally can extend without delay Monday morning by gapping up.
A pullback first would have room down to Friday morning’s “lower prior highs” at 2868.50 before a more substantial decline might be underway. An immediate decline could be only a detour, or something more durable. Otherwise, higher objectives are coming into play. We’ll discuss their specifics at Saturday Review.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Look for the Saturday Review link in your morning email.
A chaRTroom platform upgrade…
If you access the chaRTroom using Windows, then this announcement from Adobe applies to you. The gist is that an upgrade will be forced on us by Labor Day. CLICK HERE to download it now, so any issues can be addressed prior to September 3.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping Thursday to test 1.1550 had served as the consequence of Wednesday’s ineffectual optimism. Already gapping up to 1.1600 Friday and retesting Wednesday’s highs makes 1.1600 new sell signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s post-close test of the 1191.50 was recovered overnight into a a surge through Friday morning that tested the next higher objective at 1215.00. Its test has room up to 1220.00 to fill the gap still outstanding there. Back under 1200.00 first would already resume the decline targeting 1272.50.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s post-close dip to 14.45 was reversed overnight to gap up back into the 14.63-14.80 range and extend through its upper-end. Potential for extending to 15.05 would be invalidated back under the range’s 14.63 lower-end, targeting an intraday test of 14.45 and probably also fresh lows under 14.30.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s inside day had formed position of strength, whether extending higher immediately or ensuring recovery from an interim dip. Friday morning’s dip to 145-03 did recover to test the Wed-Thu 145-23 highs by a couple of ticks, still likely to extend higher.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s inside day had formed a position of strength for not rejecting Wednesday’s gap up. Friday’s gap up to 68.90 confirmed that, still having potential to complete a corrective bounce up to 70.55 so long as pullbacks now hold 68.00-68.30 as support.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Recovering intraday from Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction down to EIA had itself stopped short of gaining traction. Back under 2.95 Friday morning extended down to the week’s lows, still targeting 2.85.
Mid-day Update… Competing forces.
Fresh highs on a Friday, but only intraday.
Ahh, the memories. The probe above Tuesday’s 2874.00 prior high by 3 points has created potential for actually closing above prior highs. On a Friday. It has been quite a while since this was even possible. But it would essentially entrench the uptrend, and require at least another eventual higher close.
That’s a Friday Factor, and it’s otherwise irrelevant until the close. Even then, it could be followed Monday by a break lower — which we’d be confident would recover, because another higher close was outstanding.
Meanwhile, another Friday Factor has inadvertently hurt the chances for holding up above prior highs through the close. Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour. That helped this morning’s rally extend to 2877.25, and now its sponsorship may be fulfilled. A reaction down to 2870.50.
And that jeopardizes the potential for closing higher, because of another Friday Factor. A trending day on Friday that exits the bias window above all prior intraday timing window highs become vulnerable to extending higher through the close. This dip currently underway makes that more difficult.