Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 27, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Neither of Monday’s two Fed surveys has a track record for influencing price action, and neither is especially high-profile.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2877.00 | 2877.75 |
| …would target | 2882.25 | 2883.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2870.50 | 2871.50 |
| …would target | 2865.50 | 2866.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Back to the highs.
Target met, not renewed, but that didn’t matter.
Recovering the 2866.00 area through the open at 9:45 — or not — would have offered 
early assurance of also triggering the 2863.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. It was still being tested, so the early indication was moot.
But just testing and not rejecting it kept alive potential that its recovery was only being delayed by anxiousness ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks. Which it was. The knee-jerk reaction to his remarks spiked up to test the 2868.50 bias-up target.
Its reaction down to 2865.00 easily triggered bias-up, but didn’t recover above 2868.50 in time to renew the bias-up signal. It’s still a bias-up environment, and now another surge is attacking Tuesday’s 2874.00 high. RSIs are simultaneously overbought.
The usual bullish behavior of a bias-up target already met at 10:15 is to hover there, or back-and-fill through the balance of the bias environment. Probing higher can be premature, but the next significant higher objective would essentially be 2883.00. Regardless, I wouldn’t fade strength without some sort of distributive pattern forming first.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Try, try again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Since sellers weren’t retaking control at Thursday’s open, the first hour surged by default. The 11-point move covered a pre-open test of the 2858.50 bias-down signal and a test of the 2868.50 bias-up signal to its 2869.50 room for noise. But its excessive optimism couldn’t defend against a collapse back down to fresh lows testing 2855.00 by noon. The balance of the session ranged choppily back up to 2862.00. No unfinished business above was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
The afternoon’s 2862.00 upper-end was probed slightly by midnight. Fluctuating narrowly around it into and out of Europe’s opens has resolved up. Now fresh overnight highs are testing 2865.50, a 61.8% extension from Thursday afternoon’s range, and at least a 61.8% retracement back to yesterday’s high.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts yesterday, so trending beyond yesterday’s range this morning requires gapping. That’s was a much longer way for buyers as of the close, but now they’ve essentially recovered relevant levels around 2866.00. Meanwhile, that’s also resistance. Recovering it through the open would at least help to trigger bias-up and then to test yesterday’s highs. The knee-jerk reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s 10:00 remarks may inhibit opening action. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal is likelier to persist through the noon hour, which could leverage a morning bounce into a strong afternoon rally. All based on recovering relevant levels around 2866.00 through the open. Holding its test, or already dipping into the open would be vulnerable to the exact opposite, trending down into the weekend.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2866.50 would be likely to trigger the 2863.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2859.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2862.50 | 2863.00 |
| …would target | 2868.00 | 2868.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2853.75 | 2854.25 |
| …would target | 2848.00 | 2848.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.