Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2865.50 | 2866.25 |
| …would target | 2871.25 | 2872.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2857.00 | 2857.75 |
| …would target | 2852.00 | 2852.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
As of Tuesday’s close, there is no “unfinished business” above. As of Tuesday’s open, there was a 2-week old bias-up target at 2866.25 outstanding. And there was a likelihood for probing it up to 2873.00, potentially also to 2883.00. Tuesday’s gap up surged to 2866.25, and the noon hour tested 2873.00. That was also the bias-up signal, and it didn’t trigger. There is no unfinished business above.
Tuesday’s gap up to 2863.50 touched the 2-week old highs. Any higher would have required being tested from below in case the market decides to reverse down without delay. Similarly, Tuesday’s 2863.50 close is not above all prior highs, and won’t create a gap that want to be filled from below.
Speaking of both opening and closing at 2863.50. In the context of trending, that tends to represent indecision. The intraday probe of higher highs gained no traction for its effort. And speaking of traction, the bias environment exit was at or under the noon hour’s low, while the final hour was entered even lower. The setup has no requirements to extend, but not gapping up — or rallying without gapping up — would be likely to resolve down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The confirmed breakout from 1.1385 extended higher overnight and fulfilled its minimum objective at 1.1545. Consolidating at its resistance into and out of Tuesday’s open broke higher during the noon hour to fulfill the next higher objective at 1.1625. That’s also “higher prior lows,” so a reaction down is likely.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight probed the 1195.00 buy signal and triggered it through the close by $5. Upside could be limited to 1205.50 or extend to 1215.00-1220.00, but probably be only temporary with the outstanding attraction below to retest the 1167.00 overnight low down to 1172.50.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight choppiness repeated Monday’s post-close bounce to 14.80. Continuing to hold its resistance makes the gap back down to 14.45 likely to be filled before a reliable rally can begin.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s fresh high resolved similarly to last Wednesday’s recovery to fresh relative highs, by also dipping back into the multi-session range under 145-00 from which the prior day’s rally had originated. There’s room down to 144-18 before suggesting momentum is reversing down, instead of more likely extending the rally.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Finally rallying Tuesday morning may have launched a rally targeting the week-old opening gap back up to 67.50. Closing under 65.00 would otherwise signal a false break and momentum reversing down.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up to a fresh high seemed to confirm Monday’s gap up from Sunday night’s gap down. A fresh high close would suggest the pullback is being ignored to resume the rally. But Tuesday’s 2.98 high qualified as neither a breakout nor a reversal, and remains vulnerable to a reversal that fulfills a test of 2.85 as support.
Mid-day Update… New highs, done.
Opening surge’s correction resumes the rally.
The open’s surge to attack 2870.00 had room for a pullback down to 2864.00. 
Its test became likelier the longer a pullback was delayed without resuming the rally. Finally, the bias window began lapsing at 11:30 with a dip to 2864.00, satisfying the objective.
By noon, fresh highs were attacking 2872.00. The noon hour extended to 2874.00.
Which fulfilled this morning’s 2873.00 renewed bias-up target, although that wasn’t required. It’s also this afternoon’s bias-up signal, and didn’t trigger.
Meanwhile, the 2873.00 bias-up signal should define the no-bias window’s upper-end if tested (it’s being tested). Probing above it anyway would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced to at least 2873.00.
Just hovering at or around 2873.00 until the bias window begins lapsing at 2:30 would become likely to resume the rally. Its next higher resistance is 2879.25 with potential to 2883.00. Regardless, back under 2869.25 would start to signal momentum reversing down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 22, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s post-open econ report can influence price action if it’s a surprise. Otherwise, look for some anxiousness ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release — and then probably also a reaction.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET