Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2872.50 | 2873.00 |
| …would target | 2878.75 | 2879.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2864.25 | 2865.00 |
| …would target | 2858.25 | 2859.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Halfway home.
Gap up maintained, bias-up renewed.
The overnight rally up to 2864.75 had pulled back pre-open down to test the 2861.50 bias-up signal’s support. 
The open was greeted by a surge through the two-week old range’s 2863.50 highs. It quickly began consolidating at the 2866.25 “unfinished business” left outstanding from that prior range.
2866.25 is also this morning’s bias-up target, which is also resistance. Nevertheless, breaking higher attacked 2870.00. Its reaction down 3-point reaction down held up through 10:30 to renew the bias-up signal. The renewed bias-up target at 2873.00 is in-play.
2873.00 isn’t required, but it is likely. Meanwhile a pullback has room down to 2865.50 or even to 2864.00 before even suggesting momentum is reversing down. Which it very well may, having expended so much buying pressure so quickly without yet probing above the pre-10:15 high. It’s also not unusual after gapping up through a prior range for a pullback to test its upper-end as support.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Another overnight run.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap up to 2857.00 was overlapping Friday’s high, and it was under the 2860.00 overnight high. Restrained optimism was potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, but didn’t prevent a dip that filled the gap back to Friday’s 2851.75 close. Price never turned negative, and rallying into the noon hour’s entry attacked the open’s 2858.50 high. Ranging flat-to-higher finally probed the overnight high to attack 2861.00 before a Trump headline triggered a dip back to 2857.00. Hold-long was disqualified because the potential reward for gapping up to-and-through 2863.50 to 2866.25 was just 3-6 points, compared to potential for dipping 6-7 points to 2854.00 first.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late reaction down extended through the Globex open, ultimately touching 2854.00 at its low. Monday’s 2858.25 close was recovered by midnight. Europe’s opens not falling apart encouraged firming just a little to 2860.00, and not falling apart from there resolved up to attack 2865.00. Complexity has developed above yesterday’s highs, creating a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires an eventual intraday retest.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
This morning’s open is indicated to be the open that yesterday could have been. Friday’s rally had peaked upon testing the prior week’s “higher prior lows” at 2854.00-2855.00. Extending higher without delay probably would have gapped up above that structure’s 2863.00 upper-end. It wasn’t the only path higher, but none of the others were taken yesterday, either — instead, the overnight and intraday highs held the structure’s 61.8% internal retracement. But now this morning’s open is currently probing 2863.00, with the added assistance of having fulfilled its overnight pullback limit at 2854.00. Meanwhile, “unfinished business” left outstanding at 2866.25 during that structure’s forming had assured us last week’s interim dip to 2803.00 was only temporary. Its test is likely today, with the next higher objectives being 2873.00 and potentially 2883.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2863.00 would be likely to trigger this morning’s 2861.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2859.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2860.50 | 2861.50 |
| …would target | 2865.25 | 2866.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2853.00 | 2854.00 |
| …would target | 2847.75 | 2848.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s gap up created room to expend selling pressure without it reversing the trend down. Which the morning exploited, trending down in a series of lower lows and lower highs, while remaining in positive territory throughout. Entering the noon hour back at post-open highs fulfilled the bullish WedEX influence, and the traction Friday’s rally had gained.
Upside momentum remained intact, but obligatory resistance at the 2860.00 overnight high was influential, too. It was attacked, touched and pierced by narrow, flat-to-higher ranging that finally probed higher during the last half-hour.
Finally probing higher so late had already disqualified a hold-long. The likely gap up to-and-through 2863.50 to 2866.25 was just 3-6 points, compared to potential for dipping 6-7 points to 2854.00 first. I had just announced that in the chaRTroom when Trump comments triggered a shallow spike back into the range down to 2858.00.
The very late dip down had no effect on the less late probe up. Regardless, Friday’s high maintained its recovery upon coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close. A dip to 2854.00 remains possible, and should hold if the rally intends to extend Tuesday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.