Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s close (well) above the 1.1385 buy signal had initially gapped down a little at Monday’s open. But post-open action trended up relentlessly to confirm, targeting 1.1540-1.1545.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gap;ping up Monday to 1195.00 eventually probed higher intraday, but only briefly as the afternoon dipped back down to 1195.00. The gap back down to Friday’s 1184.00 close — if not also 1172.50 — are still likelier to be tested before a recovery can be credible.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging overnight persisted through Monday, still being likely to test 14.45 below before a recovery can be credible.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday extended to Wednesday and Friday’s 145-00 high extended to fresh highs intraday. May’s pivotal high to July’s actual high is now essentially tested, so the pattern is vulnerable to extending higher to probe 147-00.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward to Oct, which trades at a 55-60 cent discount to Sep]… Flat-to-higher ranging Monday continued Friday’s fluctuation around the pattern’s 65.50 buy signal. Triggering it through the close would target 68.25-69.25.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday helped to confirm that Friday’s gap up into the rally’s target area was only noise. But the gap down didn’t extend, leaving outstanding the room below at 2.85.
Mid-day Update… Restrained optimism becoming straining.
Sellers were absorbed, but buyers slow to be rewarded.
Sellers gained no traction for this morning’s efforts. Early strength to 2858.50 had stopped short of the 2860.00 overnight high. 
Its reaction bottomed upon filling the gap back down to Friday’s 2851.75 cash session close.
Positive territory contained the post-open downtrending. That’s the least qualification for the bullish WedEX, but the influence went further to attack or retest the open’s highs as the bias environment finished lapsing at noon.
Now WedEX has lapsed, so extending higher is the product of other influence. The obvious separate influence is the bias parameters, but this afternoon’s 2859.00 bias-up signal just avoided triggering.
Actually, 2859.00 is being pierced. Probing above it would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced before another upleg is credible. Slow-playing a break higher, or correcting it, would leave the final hour vulnerable to resuming the rally. There probably won’t be a sell signal nearer than 2855.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 21, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s econ calendar could hardly be any slower, except for a weekend. Central Bankers from around the world, and at the Fed, are packing and boarding flights for Jackson Hole.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2858.00 | 2859.00 |
| …would target | 2865.25 | 2866.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2852.25 | 2853.25 |
| …would target | 2846.25 | 2847.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Traction. Action?
Gap holds up, buyers hold out.
Multiple factors in place at Friday’s close had already suggested probing higher this morning. The bullish WedEX and the rally’s trending traction, most prominently. Last night’s “new Globex trend extreme” has been added to the list. And post-open behaviors suggested that sellers are weak-handed.
But despite the 2854.50 bias-up signal holding several tests as support, it did not trigger. More so, still being overlapped at 10:15 AND 10:30 has triggered noN-bias. The bias-up target isn’t in-play, but neither is an offsetting test of the bias-down signal.
While noN-bias often behaves like no-bias, simply hovering at the bias signal, earlier price action suggests sponsorship won’t be comfortable in a narrow range. Either fresh post-open lows or post-open highs is likely this morning.
The lower-end of the range is being tested now, but almost any strength on volume would be credible for probing fresh highs.