Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Just returning to Monday’s low wasn’t likely to form a bottom, and some more significant probe was likely. Thursday night’s plunge was much more aggressive than was required. But Turkey’s currency news leveraged the pattern’s position of weakness. No bottom is likely soon.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still hovering at or above the lows for multiple sessions despite there being no “unfinished business below” suggests a deeper probe is coming.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 3-week old 15.25 gap remains unfilled, and the interim action continues to be “ineffectual optimism” that makes fresh lows likely, too.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already rallying overnight while stocks and currencies fell sharply, the 143-12 buy signal was probed by more than 1 point. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm a reversal. But that will be difficult since the gap back to Thursday’s 143-12 close may attract price down first.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A momentary fresh low overnight held 66.15 to barely fulfill the pattern’s minimum outstanding requirement. Rallying into Friday afternoon held 67.85 resistance, needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm momentum reversing up. There is otherwise no currently active signal.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still fluctuating narrowly within the 2.93-2.95 target area’s range Friday doesn’t make fresh highs any likelier soon. But it does make a reversal down likely to recover.
Mid-day Update… Holding the lows.
Just can’t break back above the drop’s target.
This morning’s post-open drop eventually touched 2832.00. Its recovery into the bias environment exit fully tested 2841.00-2843.00… as resistance.
2841.00-2843.00 had been the downside objective created by Wednesday-Thursday’s delays. But now it is resistance. Already probing back above it this morning would have turned it back into support, supporting an afternoon of backing-and-filling that could resolve up. Too late for that.
Now this afternoon’s 2835.50 bias-down signal has barely held to trigger “late no-bias.” It should define the window’s lower-end. Hovering here until the window lapses would be vulnerable to breaking lower into the weekend. This being a Friday, breaking lower prematurely — i.e. no-bias trending — could extend down anyway.
In fact, fresh afternoon lows are testing 2833.00. Which could extend deeper. Recovering the no-bias trending is always the likelier resolution, but Fridays are the least reliable.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 13, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s econ calendar is entirely void of any scheduled economic report, high-profile or not.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2844.25 | 2844.50 |
| …would target | 2850.75 | 2851.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2835.00 | 2835.50 |
| …would target | 2826.75 | 2827.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Still in the woods.
Post-open bounce only delays the inevitable.
We
knew that 2841.00-2843.00 was likely to be tested as compensation for the delay in testing 2851.00-2852.00. So, has probing another 10 points lower over-compensated, or is that the start of something much deeper?
Ranging around 2841.00-2843.00 expanded into the open. Resistance at 2843.75 repeatedly held, and repeatedly reacted down to lower and lower lows. The last reaction was the steepest and deepest, dropping 8 points to attack 2835.00 in a half-hour.
Bouncing into the open was essentially doomed to failure. Significant overnight moves — especially down — tend to require that the intraday crowd produce its own extreme. The post-open bounce up to 2841.50 only delayed the inevitable, and eventually collapsed down to 2832.00.
Now another bounce attacking 2840.00 is trying to recover. The impediment of requiring fresh post-open lows is done, but it took so long that counter-trend (up) sponsorship is less credible. Bounces are likelier to fail, and another fresh low is likelier than not.
