Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Another hit, another low?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Last week’s relatively narrow 3-day range had been entered by gapping up. It resolved similarly, gapping down 16-17 points into Friday’s 2837.00 open. The morning’s 2832.00-2843.00 range exited the bias environment on its highs, then fell relentlessly through the afternoon bias environment to 2826.00 on no-bias trending. Its required retracement helped to recover the probe under the morning’s lows, as a steep bounce out of the proxy window retraced 61.8% up to 2838.00-2840.00 through the close. But not 100%, as the session’s interim high was not recovered.
Overnight action’s new info…
Renewed roiling of the Turkish Lira helped Sunday night’s open collapse down to 2828.25. It was soon extended to Friday’s lows, and down to 2820.25 through midnight. Its reaction back into Friday’s range touched 2831.75 before dipping again. Now that dip’s higher low has also recovered back into Friday’s range.
If, then…
Recovering the probe under Friday morning’s low had robbed sellers of their traction, but remained vulnerable to retest because momentum hadn’t reversed up above the morning’s 2841.00-2843.00. Its recovery would no longer suffice for reversing the trend up, which now requires closing above 2847.00. Fresh lows overnight don’t seem interested in a recovery, but repeatedly bouncing back above Friday’s lows does lay groundwork for a bullish Isolation setup. Preferably exiting the open above Friday morning’s low would target a retest of last week’s 2863.50 highs. Otherwise, not exploiting the setup could resolve as bearishly as it would have been bullish. More so, having already neutralized Friday morning’s attraction back down to its oversold RSIs, closing lower today anyway would be fresh bearish sponsorship.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2834.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2831.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2828.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/11/18) … One heck of a pause.
Did Friday’s plunge derail the rally, a rally that had not progressed in more than two days despite sitting all that time at its highs? We discuss that question in this week’s Saturday Review, among others, including: what would resume the rally, and how much deeper would signal the trend reversing down. Several charting and technical points were explored, as well.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Saturday Review is off next weekend, Aug 18. Then it’s back on for one week before the Labor Day holiday weekend.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
TSLA, FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, SQ, NVDA, MU, IIPR,CGC
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2840.25 | 2840.75 |
| …would target | 2847.25 | 2847.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2831.25 | 2831.75 |
| …would target | 2824.75 | 2825.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday morning’s 2832.00-2843.00 range fluctuated widely around its gap down to 2837.00. The noon hour was greeted at session highs, which fell relentlessly through the noon hour and afternoon bias environment to 2826.00. That’s 17 points below the high, and almost 28 points below Thursday’s close.
So, it’s interesting that the market left a trail of bread crumbs to help find its way back up Friday afternoon. No-bias trending under 2835.50 was the biggest crumb, which a late surge up to 2838.00 tested along with the 2837.00 opening gap.
The return trip got its start by neutralizing the low’s oversold RSIs. And that was done after a newly violated bounce limit, by impatient sellers that were easily absorbed. Ultimately, the afternoon’s fresh low was recovered to close back above the morning’s low. There’s no unfinished business below, and sellers were robbed of their traction.
But momentum hasn’t reversed up, which needed a close above 2841.00-2843.00. Still a lot of selling pressure was expended, without sellers gaining traction for their effort, and without signaling the trend reversing down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
SATURDAY REVIEW’S LINK WILL BE EMAILED BEFORE ITS 9:30 ET START TIME.