Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Closing at fresh trend extremes on Friday all but ensures probing another extreme at some point on Monday. Which Sunday night did easily on continued Turkish Lira issues. Rallying in reaction to a potential softening of Turkey sanctions was short-lived, or at least corrected. There is no longer “unfinished business below,” but not yet a buy signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Two-three bounces last week each held relevant resistance while maintaining the pattern’s downside momentum. Monday’s gap down far below the range extended down intraday. Closing at or under 1201.50 keeps alive the break’s momentum, next targeting 1188.50-1191.50. And that could confirm Monday as a breakout.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Delaying repeatedly the outstanding attraction down to 15.25 had become likely to probe it much deeper in compensating for the delay. Sunday night’s probe did extend down to fresh lows under 15.00. Which qualifies as a breakout from the multi-session range, so a second consecutive lower close on Tuesday would require at least an eventual third lower close.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday moring’s dip back down to 144-00 fluctuated sideways into the afternoon, still not resuming Friday’s rally despite having the same catalysts of Turkey turmoil and stock market weakness. A deeper reaction would still have room down to 143-12 before reversing the trend back down.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s inside day was biased-up to reflect weak-handed buyers. Already weaker Sunday night, price slid further through the open and collapsed during the morning to fresh lows. No buy signal is considered in this pattern until closing back above at least a prior low. Which will make it difficult or unlikely for Tuesday to form a position of strength ahead of Wednesday morning’s EIA report (let alone Tuesday’s post-close API).
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight weakness fell slightly lower Monday morning, which wasn’t surprising after three consecutive sessions at recovery highs had failed to extend. But the dip, even if it were to extend deeper Tuesday, would be likely to recover because the same consolidation took so long to attempt rejecting its target area.
Mid-day Update… Cleaning out sellers.
Was the intraday slide just rejected?
The noon hour tested both this afternoon’s 2826.00 bias-down signal and its 2820.50 bias-down target. A very late surge invoked the grace period, which then recovered enough to trigger no-bias. So, an offsetting test of both bias-up parameters is in-play.
And that’s after this morning’s rally attacking 2844.00. Its bias-up triggered cleanly, probing the pre-10:15 high, which usually confirms the current trending intends to fulfill its target. Usually. Breaking under its 2840.75 bias-up signal is like no-bias trending that requires being retraced, along with the 2847.75 bias-up target that became “unfinished business above.”
Meanwhile, the optimal open for an Isolation setup has been followed by the most sub-optimal price action possible, without yet invalidating it. Isolating the probe under Friday afternoon’s 2826.00 low to the noon hour is keeping alive the setup, but no rallying further this afternoon would all but kill it.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 14, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Tuesday’s econ reports is high-profile, or has any track record for influencing price action. A surprise from any one of them is unlikely, and unlikely to affect the market.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2833.50 | 2833.75 |
| …would target | 2838.75 | 2839.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2825.75 | 2826.00 |
| …would target | 2820.25 | 2820.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Isolated.
Overnight sell-off disappears before the open.
Already recovering retracing before Monday’s open, the probe under Friday’s lows was isolated to the overnight. Just holding the opening 15 minutes above Friday afternoon’s 2826.00 lows would have sufficed. But holding above the morning’s 2828.00 low was optimal. Fulfilling the setup would target a retest of last week’s 2863.50 highs.
The 2840.75 bias-up signal triggered, too. Its likelihood had been indicated by recovering 2837.00 after the first post-open dip’s recovery ignored RSIs diverging negatively. Extending higher anyway usually means that sellers are marginalized for the window — if not also for the day.
2844.00 has been attacked. A pullback could develop, but its depth and durability would be doubtful, unless the noon hour were entered back under 2837.00.