Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2840.75 | 2841.00 |
| …would target | 2846.50 | 2846.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2835.00 | 2835.50 |
| …would target | 2829.25 | 2829.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… They’re taking another shot at it.
Buyers ultimately hold the open.
The potential for gapping up above yesterday afternoon’s 2833.50 high had evaporated well before the open. 
Along with it went the potential for triggering a session-long rally. Extending higher is still possible, perhaps even throughout the session. But it’s not a requirement.
The 2830.50 bias-up signal ultimately triggered late. Its 2836.00 bias-up target had not been met, and quickly attracted price up to and through it. Unfinished business above was outstanding at yesterday morning’s 2840.75 bias-up signal, which broke lower during its bias-up environment. That was just probed up to 2842.00.
Recovering yesterday morning’s ~2844.00 high through the close wold break free from downside attractions, and confirm the Isolation setup is reinstated and targeting a retest of last week’s highs.
A lot of buying pressure has been expended already . More so, it has been expended aggressively by the steep and substantial 15-point rally off of the post-open 2826.75 low. And still yesterday morning’s high hasn’t been touched. Back under 2838.25 would start to signal this morning’s rally had failed, which remains a risk since the open already failed to exploit its opportunity to trigger a session-long rally.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Relentlessly higher overnight.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s pre-open recovery had extended post-open to attack 2844.00. That was just the first hour. Despite triggering the 2040.75 bias-up signal and putting into play its 2847.75 bias-up target, a 22-point, 2-1/2 hour drop exited the noon hour back at the 2820.50 overnight lows. That was structural support, and also calculable support for being the afternoon’s bias-down target. The 2826.00 bias-down signal was recovered just in time to avoid triggering, extending to test its 2833.75 bias-up signal’s resistance. Sliding through the balance of the session attacked session lows.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially firming attacked and then tested 2832.00 by midnight, still far enough below yesterday afternoon’s high to not be considered “stopping pessimistically short.” Nevertheless, extending higher into and out of Europe’s opens has attacked 2839.00. Its 6-point reaction held at test of 2833.00, and another bounce is within 1 point of fresh highs.
If, then…
(The correct value for bias-up is 2830.50)… “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2847.75 bias-up target. Monday morning’s Isolation setup was all but invalidated. Friday’s breakout was essentially confirmed. Gapping up Tuesday above Monday afternoon’s 2833.50 high, after having trended down into Monday’s close, would form a “session-long rally” setup. The Isolation setup would get a reprieve, and the confirmed breakout would get a detour. Otherwise, at least a third lower close is now required. Meanwhile, overnight trending has been relentless, which is always more vulnerable to a post-open reversal. And if the overnight margin above afternoon’s 2833.50 high remains so obvious getting closer to the open, then NOT maintaining it post-open could be as bearish as the setup would have been bearish.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] (There was an error in publishing this morning’s bias-up signal. Its correct value is 2830.50)… Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2832.75 would be likely to trigger the 2830.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2837.50 would be likely to exceed the 2836.00 bias-up signal through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2830.25 | 2830.50 |
| …would target | 2835.75 | 2836.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2822.00 | 2822.25 |
| …would target | 2816.25 | 2817.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The oddest part of Monday’s pattern isn’t its 22-point 2-1/2 hour drop from the morning’s attack on 2844.00. It isn’t the “unfinished business above” at the morning’s 2847.75 bias-up target, or the retracement required up to its 2040.75 bias-up signal. It’s not the Isolation setup that produced the optimal opening behavior.
The oddest part of Monday’s pattern hasn’t yet happened. And it might not. But it would be Tuesday’s gap up above Monday afternoon’s 2833.50 high, which — after having trended down into Monday’s close — would form a “session-long rally” setup. Like Monday’s Isolation setup, the optimal open would not only maintain the gap up but also trend up.
Like Monday’s setup, an optimal recovery open Tuesday could also reverse into an intraday decline. But that wouldn’t be so odd, considering Monday’s failure to exploit other recovery opportunities.
Triggering a session-long rally would also help to reject by proxy Monday’s close just slightly under Friday afternoon’s low, which the Isolation setup needed to hold. And it would undermine any momentum from Monday’s second consecutive lower close under Friday’s breakout close.
Otherwise, at least a third lower close is now required. Perhaps more would follow, regardless of the unfinished business above, which includes a bias-up target at 2866.25 left outstanding last week.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.