Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2844.25 | 2844.50 |
| …would target | 2851.75 | 2852.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2835.75 | 2836.25 |
| …would target | 2829.25 | 2829.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
In the end, Tuesday was an Inside Day, contained within Monday’s range. An upward bias that doesn’t gain traction tends to resolve bearishly. And Friday’s confirmed breakout requires at least an eventual fresh low close.
Tuesday did isolate Monday’s probe under Friday’s 2826.00 low. Which helps to reinstate Monday’s Isolation setup. Closing above Monday’s ~2844.00 high would have confirmed, and would have been reliable for retesting last week’s ~2864.00 high. None of which is very credible without gapping up Wednesday.
Only some unfinished business above was neutralized Tuesday. But enough was neutralized to enable sellers to come back in. That they didn’t — that Tuesday held its highs, does suggest at least a brief probe of fresh highs overnight.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The decline resumed Tuesday after Monday’s weak bounce had consolidated Thursday night’s crash into the weekend. The pattern offers no buy signal, and any aggressively higher open would be likely to reverse back down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s shallow bounce held a 38.2% retracement of Monday’s post-open drop. Resuming the decline without first bouncing any higher would suggest a low is near. Meanwhile, avoiding a second consecutive lower close has avoided confirming Monday’s breakout.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s shallow bounce held a 38.2% retracement of Monday’s post-open drop. Resuming the decline without first bouncing any higher would suggest a low is near. Meanwhile, avoiding a second consecutive lower close has avoided confirming Monday’s breakout.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging Tuesday remained within Friday’s range, still not extending the rally, but also not rejecting it. At least a probe of fresh highs is likely, if not resuming the rally. A deeper dip has room down to 143-12 before signaling the trend is reversing back down.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Opening Tuesday above 67.65-67.90 would have triggered a buy signal if maintained through the close. But post-open action almost immediately began reversing down, and probed negative territory down to the 66.75 sell signal. Breaking either way would be credible for trending in that direction. Wednesday’s EIA is not being greeted from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
No pullback followed several days of consolidating narrowly in the target range that was met last week, before probing slightly higher Tuesday. That qualifies as a breakout, but no consecutive higher close Wednesday would greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… Standing pat.
Still hovering just under yesterday morning’s high.
This morning’s rally from 2827.00 to 2842.00 hasn’t really advanced since then. Flat-to-higher ranging briefly touched 2843.00, but also failed to trigger this afternoon’s 2841.00 bias-up signal.
The rally also hasn’t reversed down. It’s free to do so, at any time. NOT yet reversing down during the bias environment, or at least dipping to its lower-end, would become likelier to break higher as the bias environment lapses. Any fresh high at any time could still be a false break, and a retest of the morning lows is entirely possible.
Only entering the final hour above yesterday’s ~2844.00 high would be credible for avoiding another downleg before the close. Just closing above 2833.50 would keep alive yesterday’s Isolation setup, but closing above yesterday morning’s high would be optimal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 15, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This week’s calendar is unusual for its busiest day not being Thursday, but Wednesday. The staggered drip of econ reports has 2-3 that may be high-profile, but none has a track record for influencing price action. Retail Sales may be an exception, but only if its data surprise. Meanwhile, this is expiration week, so we may have a WedEX signal at the close.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Wednesday Expiration signal
3:00 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET