Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Corrected.
Bounce into the afternoon relieves oversold condition.
This test of 2808.00 gradually grinded its way down to 2803.00, just 1 point short of its room for noise. Bouncing into the bias environment’s exit easily recovered 2808.00, so that’s one test held.
The bounce extended through the noon hour exit. Its minimum likely objective of 2818.00 was probed by 1 point, but held the 2815.00 bias-up signal to trigger late no-bias. Its reaction down is now testing 2811.00, with room to the 2806.75 bias-down signal during the no-bias environment.
Until the bias environment starts lapsing. Or sooner, as no-bias trending.
One or the other (or both) is likely. Whether to extend the decline into something more durable, or to hold another test of 2808.00, bouncing out of the bias environment isn’t likely. Back above 2818.00 could start behaving bullishly, but a test of 2802.00 remains likelier.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 16, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: An unusual Thursday for not being the econ calendar’s busiest day. But three high-profile reports due before the open are released simultaneously, one of which has its own track record for influencing price action.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2814.75 | 2815.00 |
| …would target | 2821.50 | 2821.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2806.25 | 2806.75 |
| …would target | 2799.00 | 2799.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… It’s got legs.
Gap down attracts reinforcements. A lot of them.
The overnight drop to 2821.00 had bounced 6 points to test 2827.00. Their range held to greet the open at Monday’s 2825.75 futures close. 
The open ranged there, probing Monday’s 2822.75 cash session close down to 2821.50. For awhile.
If the gap fill were going to hold a gap down, then it needed to be rejected. Sooner, rather than later. But the delay in returning back into Tuesday’s range only made the gap down likelier to extend. And that offered confidence in a relatively tight sell signal.
The hesitation did resolve down, and sharply. The session’s second 15-minute block formed a Running Correction — already a bearish pattern, but the worst time to expect otherwise. And it developed around 2818.00, which we already knew from Monday’s bounce off of the 2818.00-2820.00 upper-end was unlikely to hold.
The next lower objective in-play at 2808.00 was quickly met, and hesitation there is gradually resolving down now. It’s being probed, with room for noise under it down to 2802.00. Back above 2811.00 (being tested now) would start to signal a bounce targeting 2818.00-2820.00. But probably not a recovery, with the trend still requiring at least a third lower close.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Already failing.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s Inside Day began by rejecting a pre-open rally above Monday afternoon’s high. The combination of strength and reluctance produced a post-open reaction up from 2827.00 to 2842.00 at the bias environment’s high. Only 1 point higher was eked out during flat-to-higher ranging through the close, coming to within 1 point of Monday morning’s high. No new “unfinished business” was left outstanding. Trading exclusively above 2826.00 confirmed the bullish Isolation setup remains intact.
Overnight action’s new info…
Asia’s opens sent price down from 2843.00 to 2835.00 by midnight. Firming into Europe’s opens tested and retested 2839.50, and its shallow reaction had just begun recovering, when the news hit from Turkey. Almost two hours of relentless selling has extended down to 2821.75. Yesterday’s opening low is being probed by 5 points, under Monday’s 2823.00-2826.00 closes that yesterday’s opening low had stopped optimistically short of filling.
If, then…
Tuesday was an Inside Day with an upward bias, which doesn’t gain traction for its effort. It tends to resolve bearishly without gapping up the following day. Some sort of probe higher was likely, if not for the news, but the initial overnight dip suggests that a probe above yesterday’s high would have swung down sharply, anyway. So, what why assess a pattern that could have been, when it clearly won’t? Artificial selling from a headline reaction can have much more bearish implications if it exceeds the organic objective that would have fulfilled sellers, anyway. Friday’s confirmed breakout still has outstanding the requirement for at least an eventual fresh low close. Interim support is at 2818.00, but there’s room for that down to 2808.00 before suggesting a more durable drop underway. Only recovering yesterday’s 2831.00 open through this morning’s open would suggest otherwise.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2828.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2829.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2831.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2836.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.