Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Highwire act.
Hovering just under this morning’s highs.
Surging at the open, and after its reaction, had extended up to 2863.75 soon after the first hour. An errant tick above the 2861.75 bias-up target was the high, and pushed price back down to 2858.00 as the bias environment began lapsing.
That range has defined price action since then. The half-hour leading into the noon hour, the noon hour, and now potentially the afternoon bias environment. No trending, just ranging.
Even the most bullish scenario doesn’t require extending up today, or prevent a deeper pullback. Back under 2859.50 would suggest a deeper pullback underway. Meanwhile, extending higher would be difficult during the no-bias environment, whose 2863.25 has held its test.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 8, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No econ reports are scheduled Wednesday besides the otherwise non-influential mortgage apps. But the pre-open Fed speaker is the first Fed speaker in a couple of weeks, and the first since last week’s FOMC policy statement. The 10-year note auction comes at an interesting point in the bond market’s chart.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Tom Barkin Speaks
8:45 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2863.25 | 2863.25 |
| …would target | 2869.50 | 2869.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2856.50 | 2856.75 |
| …would target | 2850.75 | 2851.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… And even higher.
Gap up maintained, extended.
Gapping up above 2854.25 — and preferably to or around 2856.00 — would exceed the room for noise above yesterday afternoon’s range. 
Which would create a position of strength. Dipping into yesterday afternoon’s range would still be possible, but likely to recover.
No dip.
Opening at or around 2856.00 surged to 2860.00 and back down to 2856.00. The open only threatened to reverse down, and only momentarily. Rallying through the first hour has extended up to 2863.75, probing the bias-up target by 2 points.
Now the bias-up target’s minimum buying pressure is fulfilled. And the 2-point probe above it includes an errant tick that wasn’t immediately confirmed. Extending higher is possible, but not required. A reaction down has room down to 2859.25 before suggesting a deeper pullback is underway. Extending higher would essentially next target 2873.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Overnight enthusiasm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
SPECIAL NOTE: I’ve produced two new Bias Parameter videos, an introduction and an example. They’re linked perpetually on the daily Bias blog posts. A handy library of actual examples will be made available later this week, along with much more supporting reference items…
Monday morning’s probe of fresh highs was indicated already when Friday afternoon’s rally gained traction. But extending higher Monday also overcame a couple of challenges. First, the Globex-flip setup had threatened to reject its overnight probe above Friday’s 2840.50 highs. Then, the 2841.00 bias-up signal’s rejection was threatened during its grace period. But both reversal attempts only trapped more sellers, and their covering helped to fuel the rally through the noon hour. The balance of the session fluctuated around the two-week old 2850.00 prior high. The new recovery high close fulfilled the outstanding requirement. And the afternoon’s 2854.25 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.”
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging gradually improved through midnight to 2852.50. Rallying into and out of Europe’s opens extended through yesterday’s 2853.50 high to 2858.50. There was enough complexity to qualify as a “new Globex trend extreme,” which requires eventual intraday retest.
If, then…
Extending higher overnight seems to be confirming the rally is in its relentless stage. This doesn’t prevent dips, in the context of higher highs and higher lows. But dips should be either shallower, briefer, or both — until getting much closer to the next higher target at 2873.00. Meanwhile, gapping up could break free from Monday afternoon’s Symmetrical Triangle, and avoid being a false break that would otherwise reverse more substantially in the opposite direction.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2856.00 would be likely to trigger the 2854.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2848.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.