Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2854.25 | 2854.25 |
| …would target | 2861.75 | 2861.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2845.75 | 2846.00 |
| …would target | 2838.75 | 2839.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
SPECIAL NOTE: I’ve produced two new Bias Parameter videos, an introduction and an example. They’re linked perpetually on the daily Bias blog posts. A handy library of actual examples will be made available later this week, along with much more supporting reference items.
Monday’s rally extended through the noon hour’s exit, and almost into the afternoon bias environment. Bias-up still triggered, putting into play 2854.25. But the balance of the session only ranged sideways. Choppily sideways, back down to 2847.00 and narrowing into 2850.00.
The 2854.25 bias-up target becomes “unfinished business above.” Which helps to keep alive the rally, since Monday meanwhile fulfilled the outstanding requirement for at least one more eventual higher close. Fulfilling it isn’t bearish, but could have become bearish without creating the new higher attraction to 2854.25.
I suspect the rally is in a relentless stage. Meaning that it will maintain its uptrending series of higher highs and higher lows, next targeting 2873.00 up to 2883.00. Monday’s rally overcame both the open’s Globex-flip setup, and morning bias-up’s threatened rejection. One day’s rally probably isn’t the entire reward.
None of which precludes another corrective dip. Monday afternoon’s range formed a Symmetrical Triangle. The pattern often breaks falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. A break lower could attack or probe 2843.00 before recovering.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Trending down throughout Friday made Monday likely to probe fresh lows at least momentarily. In fact, overnight weakness gapped down to fresh lows. Immediately bouncing did manage to touch Friday’s “higher prior lows,” so that retesting Monday’s lows could form a bottom. There is otherwise no bottoming pattern or signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s bounce was rejected Sunday night, greeting Monday’s open with a gap down to new lows. Bouncing into the noon hour held resistance at Friday’s low before ending the under all prior lows. Any bottoming pattern would require two days to form at this stage, and the trend otherwise remains down.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down to fresh lows for the decline still avoided filling the 3-week old gap down. Testing it Thursday night did not qualify, as the gap fill is required intraday.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night only ranged narrowly after Friday’s bounce to the 143-02 buy signal. It resolved up without further delay Monday morning. Two separate patterns are in-play, and a second consecutive higher close on Tuesday would target 144-12, potentially also 146-00.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s drop held its pullback limit, and already recovered the pullback’s origin Sunday night. A shallower dip Monday morning also held its pullback limit. The pattern has no bullish reason to further delay retesting last week’s Island pattern, which can be probed up to 71.75.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s weakness was recovered Monday morning, helping to confirm that Friday’s trending to fresh highs has reversed momentum up.
Mid-day Update… Two steps forward.
Another bias-up signaled.
This morning’s 2841.00 bias-up signal triggered cleanly, probed up to 2843.50.
Its reaction down to 2841.00 held at 10:30, instead of invalidating bias-up. The 2846.00 bias-up target was met as the bias environment was lapsing.
As was suspected, the bias target’s test was likely to include 2848.00. Surging into the noon hour fulfilled it. Surging also extended to 2851.00, and eventually up to 2853.50 through the noon hour’s exit.
Now this afternoon’s 2848.00 bias-up signal has triggered. But its extended noon hour sponsorship has lost momentum, reversing back down to probe 2-3 ticks back under 2848.00.
This is still a bias-up environment. The window’s lower-end should be defined by its 2848.00 bias-up signal. That doesn’t preclude temporarily probing it down to 2846.00. Meanwhile, the 2854.25 bias-up target will become “unfinished business above” if left outstanding.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 7, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s jobs openings report is the essentially the session’s only relevant report. It already has a track record for influencing price action, which its solo appearance can magnify.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET