Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2841.00 | 2841.00 |
| …would target | 2846.00 | 2846.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2832.00 | 2832.50 |
| …would target | 2825.50 | 2826.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| NEW: BIAS INTRO VIDEO | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s relentless optimism clearly discounted Friday’s Employment Situation report. 
The news was greeted at Thursday’s 2828.50-2831.00 highs, where its reaction fluctuated into and out of the open. Of course, the report wasn’t the only influence, so it’s more coincidence than efficiency that the news was already perfectly discounted. But it’s still
Breaking out of the 2828.50-2831.00 range attacked the 2836.00 overnight high before retracing. The open’s range held as support, and being Friday morning, sellers were done. Not finished, but done. The balance of the session trended higher to fulfill both the morning and afternoon’s 2837.50 and 2838.50 bias-up targets.
And higher. Exiting Friday afternoon’s bias environment beyond the session’s other timing windows tends to extend. The final hour’s entry surged up to 2840.25 where resistance was already identified. Its reaction down was brief, and too late to be the work of strong-handed sponsorship. The afternoon’s uptrending pivotal support held its initial test, and overbought RSIs attracted the close back up to the high.
Retracing the prior week’s 2838.25-2842.25 high close confirms the interim dip was only a temporary correction. Which also confirms the eventual third higher close requirement. Closing within the prior high close’s range doesn’t qualify. The likelihood for probing January’s highs remains intact, too.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
THE LINK TO THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW WILL BE EMAILED BEFORE ITS 9:30 ET START.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh lows though Friday’s open extended the retest of three-week old prior lows down to 1.1595. Their 1.1636 gap down had been filled already Thursday, so closing lower Friday would all but ensure at least probing lower Monday — regardless of Monday’s resolution.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight reacted up Friday morning to retest 1227.00 as resistance. The test held, keeping alive the drop’s momentum which still requires at least an eventual third lower close and likely tests of 1209.50 and potentially 1188.50.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight selling was recovered into Friday’s open, and the overnight 15-cent drop to 15.25 disappeared as Friday gapped up. Testing 15.25 would neutralize the three-week old gap down that still wants to be tested from above.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s reaction to the Employment Situation report bounced to touch the 143-02 buy signal, but only to touch it and not trigger it. Extending higher would leave no “unfinished business below,” and extending higher is likely so long as pullbacks now hold 142-16 as support. Closing any lower would more likely resume the decline.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday surge back above 68.35 up to previous resistance at 69.25 was retraced Friday to test 68.05 as support. Holding its test keeps alive upside momentum targeting the Island and 71.75.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction had held Tuesday’s 2.83 prior high, but Friday gapped up through it and trended slightly higher. I’m treating this as a confirmed breakout, next targeting 2.93-2.95 so long as 2.78 holds as support.
Mid-day Update… Creeping along.
More upside objectives in-play.
Finally rallying out of the open’s 2828.50-2831.00 range attacked the 2836.00 overnight high to within 2-3 ticks. Bias-up triggered late, putting into play 2837.50. And then price dipped back down to 2828.50.
Sellers had all morning to actually reverse price down, if they were able. But they couldn’t and didn’t. Their break under 2831.00 didn’t extend beyond its room for noise below. The only attraction is higher, so buyers get a benefit of the doubt.
In fact, rallying again since noon has attacked the 2836.00 overnight high to within 1 tick. That triggered another bias-up, putting into play 2838.50.
Back under 2831.00 would still be credible for producing a detour down. But a more credible sell signal will be available after upside objectives are met.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 6, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week gets off to a slow start regarding economic reports, of which none are scheduled. Spoiler Alert: It doesn’t pick up much from there.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET