Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2833.00 | 2833.00 |
| …would target | 2838.50 | 2838.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2825.00 | 2825.25 |
| …would target | 2819.75 | 2820.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Heavy lift.
Muted payrolls reaction trying to resolve up.
The surprise move by the PBOC had taken the market from 2828.50 up to 2836.00. But only temporarily before greeting the Employment Situation report at 2831.00. Its knee-jerk reaction tested and retested 2727.75 before the open, which was 2828.50.
The first half-hour then fluctuated narrowly, resisted up to 2831.00, and supported by tests of 2727.75. Resolving up invoked the grace period, but ultimately triggered the 2831.00 bias-up signal. Its 2837.50 bias-up target is in-play.
The pre-open high has been attacked to within 2-3 ticks at 2835.50. Its resistance is interesting, and holding its retest through a relevant window could establish an intraday extreme. Stopping pessimistically short of even touching it could keep buying pressure healthy enough to extend the rally this afternoon.
Reversing down is more difficult at this stage. But back under 2831.00 (being attacked now) would start to signal a pullback underway, even if only temporarily to retest the ~2525.00 overnight lows.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… All eerie on the front.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open was greeted by an overnight double-digit slide to fresh lows at 2791.00, already reacting up to 2797.50. While the pre-open recovery had been gradual, the post-open rally steepened almost immediately. Albeit a late trigger, no-bias rejected tests of both the 2801.50 and 2807.50 bias-down parameters and put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters at 2815.50 and 2822.00. The objectives were fulfilled going into and coming out of the noon hour. The afternoon bias environment’s high touched the lower-end of its 2828.50-2831.00 renewed bias-up target. Its reaction down was recovered through the close to touch the target’s upper-end.
Overnight action’s new info…
Whether anxiousness ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report, or just patience before the news, there were no traces of Thursday’s rally during Globex — not until minutes ago. Hardly any traces of any volatility is always eerie ahead of high-profile news. The immediately began dipping back into Thursday afternoon’s range down to 2826.00 before midnight. A breathtaking 3-point bounce into Europe’s opens was retraced to test 2825.00. The dip was brief, and temporary, as another bounce is now probing fresh highs to 2835.50 on China FX news.
If, then…
A lot of buying pressure was expended Friday, relentlessly, without gaining traction for its effort. That makes its optimism “ineffectual optimism.” Literally all available buying pressure was expended, fulfilling but holding 2828.50-2831.00. It’s not a sell signal, but it essentially requires more optimism without delay to avoid being reversed. The outstanding requirement for at least an eventual third higher close tilts the odds in favor of extending Thursday’s rally. Rallying from the intraday test of 2801.50 raises the concern for some interim reaction down first.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] There is no preliminary indication ahead of Employment Situation reports.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2830.50 | 2831.00 |
| …would target | 2837.00 | 2837.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2824.75 | 2825.25 |
| …would target | 2818.25 | 2818.75 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s rally through the afternoon bias environment greeted the noon hour within the bias environment’s range. And the 3:10-3:20 proxy window didn’t trend. So, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s range never confirmed it was gaining traction. Which leaves vulnerability either way in reaction to Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report.
That was a lot of buying pressure to expend Friday, relentlessly, without gaining traction for its effort. If the buying pressure is optimism, then it is “ineffectual optimism.” Which isn’t a sell signal, but it essentially requires more optimism without delay to avoid being reversed. And if that’s just one degree of difficulty, now it’s two degrees, since post close action fulfill the 2831.00 upper end of the target area ,too. More buying pressure expended, still no traction for the effort.
There’s still at least an eventual third higher close required, and a likelihood for probing January’s highs. That was signaled last week, and so was the potential for a temporary pullback. Relevant levels have been tested and held, and now proved influential. None of which requires extending higher immediately Friday, but all of which remains consistent with the bigger picture expectations.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.