Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2846.00 | 2846.75 |
| …would target | 2853.00 | 2853.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2839.25 | 2840.00 |
| …would target | 2833.00 | 2833.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Already firming.
Overnight consolidation resolves up.
The 2837.50 open was greeted by a relatively narrow 2832.50-2838.00 overnight range. That ended abruptly by surging to 2843.75, which also ended abruptly by retracing entirely back down to the 2837.50 open.
The 2839.50 bias-down signal held its test to trigger no-bias. An offsetting test of its 2848.75 bias-up signal is in-play. Dipping to test 2839.50 was still overlapping it through 10:30, which did not qualify for invalidating 10:15’s cleanly triggered signal.
Choppiness since then has worked back up to within 1 tick of 2843.75. This includes improvement since the 10:15 signal, which is its only confirmation available other than actually fulfilling the bias objective.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Even narrower.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Perhaps limiting Wednesday’s opening 6-point surge to 2826.00 was product of having originated from a position of weakness. Regardless, the consolidation resolved through the morning bias environment exit, and touched 2836.00 during the afternoon bias environment exit. More so, its 3-point reaction down held above Tuesday’s 2831.25 high to avoid reversing momentum down. The shallow pullback within upside momentum met the position-squaring window being vulnerable to a short-squeeze. Perhaps the setup would have triggered organically, but probably not by spiking up 18 points when the US-EU tariff deal was announced. Reacting down from 2849.50 got to 2840.00 before the close, which bounced 61.8% back up to 2845.50..
Overnight action’s new info…
Having been triggered by a headline, Wednesday’s late surge to 2849.50 was likely to be retraced. What the pre-close dip missed, the Globex gap down to 2835.00 nearly completed. The 2833.25 overnight low is close enough to neutralize that setup’s attraction. But we wouldn’t know it from subsequent price action — the balance of the night, the entire night actually, has ranged narrowly sideways between 2834.00-2838.50.
If, then…
The second consecutive close above 2818.00 confirms a new rally leg is underway, requiring at least an eventual third higher close. It’s next higher target 2873.00, and potentially 2909.00. Potentially. The leg’s characteristic should soon become very aggressive. But not necessarily yet, and the proximity to January’s highs could create turbulence this morning. The bullish context could have a near-term bearish influence, too, as it allows a retracement to refuel buyers, maybe no deeper than 2828.50 but with room to retest 2818.00. Trending up again Thursday afternoon could extend through Monday morning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2836.25 would be likely to trigger the 2839.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2842.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2847.00 | 2848.75 |
| …would target | 2843.75 | 2554.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2838.75 | 2839.50 |
| …would target | 2831.25 | 2832.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s gap down created a position of weakness, since the prior afternoon’s bounce had gained no traction. If a rally were attempted, it would be doomed to failure. Tuesday’s 2823.00 opening gap up wanted to be filled from below, and the open surged up to 2826.00. But its reaction down to 2819.00 was recovered entirely by noon. Hint.
Retesting Tuesday’s 2831.25 high up to 2836.00 was also possible, as discussed during the Market Tour. The rally extended to touch it upon exiting the afternoon bias environment. A deep enough reaction down would have been bearish. Instead, its reaction down held above Tuesday’s 2831.25 high to avoid reversing momentum down. Hint.
Timing isn’t everything, but it’s a lot. It was certainly the most important thing when Trump announced a tariff deal with the EU. The shallow pullback had not reversed upside momentum, so the position-squaring window created a vulnerability to a short-squeeze. That’s the setup, which Trump’s announcement then spiked over the net.
The market spiked up 18 point to 2849.50 before the cash session close, and futures dipped back down to 2840.00. The second consecutive close above 2818.00 confirms a new rally leg underway, requiring at least an eventual third higher close. Closing back under 2821.00 would negate the objective. The bullish context and the proximity to January’s highs could create turbulence Thursday morning. But trending Thursday afternoon through Monday morning is likely.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.