Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The cycle repeated Wednesday — early strength followed by a fresh low that was recovered to attack the earlier strength. Wednesday was the first instance of this cycle developing entirely intraday, suggesting that it is nearing a resolution. Back above 1.1755 would target 1.1850, in what should be a swift move since the pattern has already backed-and-filled.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up to the recent range’s 1230.00 upper-end spent the day ranging around the range’s upper-end exclusively in positive territory, but without a breakout. That’s “ineffectual optimism,” which can be bullish if followed by aggressive buying early Thursday.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday to test Tuesday’s high above 15.60 repeated Tuesday’s “ineffectual optimism” by remaining in positive territory but not closing above prior highs. This pattern can repeat indefinitely, so its hesitating gains are not compelling to short. And the door remains open to a surge targeting 15.80 or 16.00.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming up to the 143-12 bounce limit Wednesday held, without reversing back under 143-02 where the decline would signal it is extending. The buy signal remains unchanged at 144-08.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s favorable reaction to the EIA report extended through the 68.82 buy signal up to 69.70 which is now targeting at leas 71.75 as a correction. Any higher would start to suggest a retest of the prior highs.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday tested 2.78 which must hold as resistance to maintain the decline’s momentum. Holding its test through the close, and leaving outstanding the gap back down to Tuesday’s close, is greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… Inside Day-ing.
Trending up within yesterday’s range.
Overnight action was contained within yesterday’s late-afternoon bounce. 
Yesterday’s late-afternoon 2822.00 high was attacked during that window, but the window held — sort of like an “inside day.”
Rallying out of this morning’s 2818.50 open has extended through the noon hour to attack yesterday’s 2831.25 high (finally piercing it now). That’s no small feat, but it’s still contained entirely within yesterday’s range, so today is so far an inside day.
The significance of these characteristics to my templates is that rally’s sponsorship isn’t gaining traction. There are no reliable lasting effects, which would help to ensure extending higher. Which is in-line with today’s upleg being doomed to failure, having rallied from a gap down under yesterday afternoon’s highs.
Probing fresh highs during this afternoon’s bias environment has room up to 2836.00. No longer an inside day, but bearish if the bias environment were exited back under 2829.50-2831.25.
This morning’s 2813.75 bias objective has become “unfinished business below,” which requires being tested eventually. It would be the likely objective of any topping action today, especially if closing under 2818.50.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 26, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s busiest day of the calendar starts overseas this week, with the ECB policy statement and the ECB chair’s often entertaining Q&A. His appearance will overlap a high-profile and reliably influential Durable Goods report.
*ECB policy statement / Draghi Q&A
7:45 AM / 8:30 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2826.50 | 2827.25 |
| …would target | 2832.25 | 2833.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2820.00 | 2821.00 |
| …would target | 2814.50 | 2815.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Yesterday’s late range hangs on.
Early to bed, too late to rise.
Retesting the overnight low was supportive. Not just for being the overnight low, but also for being within 1 tick of this morning’s 2813.75 bias-down signal. The retest held, and the open was greeted at 2818.50.
Not a gap up. In fact, a gap down from yesterday’s 2821.00 close. And gapping up was necessary to resume the rally this morning.
Resuming the rally can be attempted this morning, but it would be doomed to failure. Actually, rallying through the open has neutralized the attraction back up to yesterday’s 2823.00 opening gap up. Probing it by 3 points didn’t prevent reversing down 6 points, triggering no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2813.75 bias-down signal is in-play.
Probing above the bias-up signal now would only be “no-bias trending.” And that would require being retraced, unless it were to extend above its 2829.50 bias-up target through the bias environment lapsing.