Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Cauterized, not caught.
Morning’s slide stops, but doesn’t reverse.
Despite having been probed by nearly 4 points, this morning’s 2804.00 bias-down target held through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. It held a retest through 10:30, too. Often that will define the bias environment’s lower-end, which it did again, bouncing back up to the 2811.00 bias-down signal.
The noon hour dipped back down to 2804.00. Perhaps an even deeper drop was underway — if not also triggering this afternoon’s bias-down and resuming the morning’s decline — but for Trump’s interest rate comment triggering a knee-jerk reaction. The reaction happened to be up, it might as well have been down. In fact, it was retraced entirely almost immediately. Regardless, it crowded out the organic move already underway.
Now this afternoon has triggered no-bias by holding this afternoon’s 2805.75 bias-down signal. There’s room back up to the 2813.25 bias-up signal, and 2811.00 is now being retested. Back under 2807.50 would start to signal the decline was resuming anyway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 20, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No econ reports are scheduled for Friday morning. Zero, zip. zilch. None. The day’s Fed speaker is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action, but his appearance is too long before the open. Meanwhile, the quarterly earnings onslaught continues.
James Bullard Speaks
8:20 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2812.25 | 2813.25 |
| …would target | 2817.50 | 2818.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2804.75 | 2805.75 |
| …would target | 2798.25 | 2799.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Still sliding.
Overnight slide extends post-open.
Early sponsorship didn’t agree on this morning’s resolution. 
Exiting the opening 15 minutes beyond either end of 2809.00-2813.00 would have made the 2811.00 bias-down signal more or less likely to trigger at 10:15. Opening at 2809.00 and bouncing to 2813.00 was still overlapping 2811.00 at 9:45.
2811.00 was still being overlapped on the way down to 2800.25. Its reaction recovered back above the 2804.00 bias-down target in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal.
Holding the bias-down target’s test through 10:15 often holds it through the entire bias environment. But bouncing up to 2808.00 has reacted down to retest 2804.00 as support. It’s still likelier to hold through the bias environment because this setup often does. But a fresh post-10:15 low under 2802.00 would be entirely credible for extending down, targeting 2791.25.
Meanwhile, back above 2806.25 would start to signal at least an attack on the 2811.00 bias-down signal’s resistance.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Doom delayed, not denied.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Dipping overnight into Wednesday’s open extended down to Tuesday’s noon hour low, and held the morning’s 2807.75 bias-down signal. The offsetting test of its 2816.00 bias-up signal attracted price higher. Tuesday’s highs were probed up to 2818.00 as the noon hour began, and again as the session ended, with an interim dip to 2813.00. The close was still testing 2816.75, and not exceeding it which would have put into play higher objectives. No higher targets or objectives are in-play. WedEX triggered passive-bearish, for having held relevant resistance without creating higher unmet targets.
Overnight action’s new info…
Doomed to failure was apparently delayed to failure. Wednesday’s reaction down from retesting 2818.00 extended down to attack 2814.00 at the Globex open, then returned to 2818.00. Dipping back down to 2814.00 a second time didn’t hold, and has trended back down to probe yesterday’s 2806.75 low by 2 ticks.
If, then…
Gapping up and extending above 2818.00 seems to be off the table, so the bearish WedEX won’t be adjusted. But opening under 2809.00 can adjust the passive signal by proxy to active. Opening under 2809.00 and recovering it through the open would be bullish for the WedEX signal, which won’t be influential until tomorrow afternoon. and also bullish for this morning to at least probe above 2818.00. Otherwise, a bearish morning will depend upon whether the open tests only 2809.00 or also yesterday’s 2806.75 low, and then whether the test holds.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2809.00 would be likely to trigger the 2811.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2814.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.