Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2816.50 | 2818.00 |
| …would target | 2821.75 | 2823.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2809.50 | 2811.00 |
| …would target | 2802.50 | 2804.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s buyers had not gained traction for their efforts, so only gapping up Wednesday was likely to extend the rally. Rallying anyway would be doomed to failure. An overnight dip took Wednesday’s opening action back down to Tuesday’s noon hour low before rallying. Tuesday’s high was probed twice, and held twice, but the doom was otherwise muted.
The afternoon highs were supported by the rally’s 2813.00 objective as support. The morning’s 2816.00 bias objective held as resistance, after extending to test its room for noise up to 2818.00. Buying pressure is satisfied, and the second consecutive session of testing 2816.75 has avoided recovery that would have targeted higher highs. And buyers again failed to gain traction for their intraday efforts.
None of which is a sell signal.
The WedEX comes close. It triggered passive-bearish, for having held relevant resistance without creating higher unmet targets. Thursday’s open can adjust the signal by proxy, either gapping up and extending above 2818.00, or else extending down under 2809.00. In either case, WedEX wouldn’t be influential until Friday afternoon.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still trending down overnight to 1.1653 gapped down Wednesday to retest the 1.1665 support that had held night’s low, and had launched the interim rally. Rallying straight back up into the afternoon filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s close, and extending any higher Thursday morning would be likely to extend intraday.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s sharp decline to fresh lows from the two-day range all but required probing lower lows Wednesday. Gapping down fulfilled the fresh lows, then bounced back into Tuesday’s range up to 1229.00. The 1223.60 open’s gap down under all prior lows can now be filled and neutralize its attraction.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sliding sharply Tuesday extended overnight to gap down Wednesday at 15.45. Bouncing back up to Tuesday’s 15.55 higher prior lows now allows a retest of Wednesday’s opening gap down to form a durable bottom.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still not rejecting Monday morning’s brief probe under the 145-02/145-25 range’s low to 144-23 continued making its break likelier. Even gapping up Wednesday to test 145-10 was reversed back under Tuesday’s lows to 144-27.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness avoided fresh lows, but still greeted Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. Gapping down to attack Tuesday’s low reacted back up to test Thursday’s high. Extending any higher Thursday morning would suggest the pullback or first downleg had ended.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s fresh lows all but confirmed the decline’s momentum remains intact, absorbing the Sunday-Monday night choppy bouncing. Not recovering any relevant resistance through the close greets Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… Hovering at the highs.
No higher objectives outstanding.
Holding the test of this morning’s 2807.75 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of 2816.00 bias-up signal. It was met soon after the bias environment began lapsing. Its test was likely also to visit the overnight highs, up to 2818.00. The noon hour’s entry quickly met 2818.00 and price has been drifting back down since then.
The 2816.75 bias-up signal held its test to signal no-bias. The balance of the bias environment has room down to the 2808.25 bias-down signal. Currently, 2814.00 is being attacked, which is either foreshadowing further weakness., or else posturing defensively ahead of the Beige Book release due at 2:00 ET.
Not gapping up from yesterday’s pattern made any probe higher likely to fail. So, resolving down this afternoon remains likely. Entering the final hour above 2816.75 would be likelier to extend higher anyway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 19, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The calendar’s busiest day is always Thursday, and this week’s is especially well laid out for constant input. The pre-open Fed survey is reliable for influencing price action. Any noticeable reaction would likely be duplicated in reaction to post-open reports, especially to the post-open high-profile and influential LEI.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET