Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Technical glitch.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s drop to 2795.00 was signaled by the Globex setup — reversing an overnight probe of fresh highs up to 2709.00 to open back under the 2803.75 earlier overnight low. The morning remained under bearish pressure. The bias-down signal narrowly avoided being touched or triggering, so no other objective above or below was put into play. And later tests of the bias-down signal throughout the morning were absorbed. Positive territory held as resistance to a noon hour bounce, but the bounce’s failure only attacked the morning’s low. One more bounce stopped short of signaling a hold-long, and the cash session ended at 2800.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Blipping up to 2801.25 after the cash session close was reversed sharply down to 2795.00 as news leaked of AMZN web site problems and NFLX reported earnings difficulties. Globex initially recovered to retest 2801.25, suggesting that participants view the AMZN/NFLX problems as localized to the companies. Reversing back down into and out of Europe’s opens to a fresh low at 2790.50 may be suggesting that ripple effects are coming anyway (I expand on this in the Market Tour recording). Bouncing to 2797.75 has reacted down almost entirely back to the low.
If, then…
Having probed overnight under yesterday’s low, opening back above yesterday’s low and holding it as support could Isolate overnight sellers. The potentially bullish setup may be the only alternative to extending yesterday’s intraday weakness today with potential down to 2781.25. So, triggering bias-down, or not, may tell us everything about the balance of today’s session.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2792.50 would be likely to trigger the 2794.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2797.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2802.00 | 2803.50 |
| …would target | 2807.50 | 2809.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2793.00 | 2794.75 |
| …would target | 2787.75 | 2789.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday morning’s drop was signaled by the Globex setup — at least remaining under bearish pressure through the morning. That wasn’t enough to trigger bias-down, which was probed repeatedly anyway throughout the morning. Recovering into the noon hour held natural resistance at unchanged instead of probing into positive territory. But sellers couldn’t exploit the recovery’s hesitation, and the afternoon’s reaction down only attacked the morning’s low. One more bounce stopped short of signaling a hold-long, so Tuesday morning remains open to either direction, requiring neither, but still vulnerable to extending the rally.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday to test 1.1770 resistance reacted down to 1.1750 support, which held and almost recovered 1.1770 again. Extending higher Tuesday would next target filling last Monday’s gap open back up to the 1.1850 original corrective bounce target.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight held 1245.50 resistance and reversed down through the morning to fill the gap back to Friday’s 1238.40 gap down. It required being filled after testing “higher prior lows,” but Monday’s inside day must await closing above Sunday night’s 1245.80 interim higher to signal momentum reversing up. Downside momentum otherwise remains intact.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Sunday night to attack Friday’s 15.90 high was retraced entirely back down to Friday’s low attacking 15.75. This is neither a buy signal or a sell signal, but neither does it establish that Friday’s drop and optimistic low has yet attracted strong-handed buyers. Probing again above 15.90 would be credible for extending higher intraday, but the decline’s momentum otherwise remains intact.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Greeting the new week from the range’s 145-25 upper-end once again reversed back down to its 145-02 lower-end Monday morning. But the lower-end was also probed down to 144-23, albeit only momentarily before recovering back into the range. Only closing under 144-23 would signal a new downtrend underway.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s confirmed breakout from 74.00 had bounced Friday, but gapping down Monday extended intraday to fresh lows testing 67.60. The pattern’s minimum eventual third lower close is now fulfilled. More lower closes are pssible, but the bounce limit is now 69.60.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Bouncing Sunday night to 2.77 was reversed to fresh lows Monday morning at 2.73. A post-open bounce retraced the overnight highs. This stage of the decline cannot tolerate much if any delay to extending lower, to avoid at least a corrective bounce.
Mid-day Update… The regular crowd shuffles in.
Morning’s bearish influence could be absorbed.
This morning’s 2797.75 bias-down signal didn’t trigger. It wasn’t even touched in time to invoke the grace period despite being in proximity. 
And breaking under it was recovered by 10:30 to maintain the no-bias environment. That no-bias environment didn’t prevent a fresh low at 2795.00, but it warned of the fresh low’s recovery, at least back up to 2797.75.
2797.75 was recovered, and was retested as support into the noon hour. It held again, but only to test this afternoon’s 2802.75 bias-up signal. And only momentarily by errant ticks. This afternoon is a no-bias environment, too.
Bias environments lapse. This one will come within view of lapsing 10-15 minutes before 2:30. Breaking higher would at least target a retest of the 2804.75 post-open highs. And probably extend higher to test the 2809.00 target which has yet to be tested intraday. Last night’s test of 2809.00 could suffice, but any higher would next target 2813.00-2816.75.
Did I mention that last night’s test of 2809.00 could suffice? Exiting the bias environment in decline would resume this morning’s bearish setup. Potential to 2781.25 would come into play.