Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 17, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Tuesday’s econ reports are either high-profile or reliably influential to price action. But they would probably be drowned out anyway from attention given to the Fed Chair’s first of two consecutive Congressional testimonies, which is both high-profile and influential. The first day’s price reaction isn’t necessarily predictable until the testimony has been well-established. And then it is also very informative to Wednesday morning’s likely pattern.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2801.25 | 2802.75 |
| …would target | 2806.00 | 2807.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2792.75 | 2794.25 |
| …would target | 2784.50 | 2786.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Slippery slope.
Reversal into the red has set the tone.
Having probed overnight above the prior session’s high, exiting the open under the earlier overnight low has signaled a bearish morning.
Other observations include the overnight high touching what is this morning’s 2709.00 bias-up signal — which is also the next rally’s next higher target in-play.
But that was overnight.
The open was struggling to maintain positive territory, and bounced momentarily back above 2804.00. But the 2803.75 earlier overnight low broke lower through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. As did one of Friday’s last relative lows at 2801.50.
Meanwhile, this morning’s bias-down did not trigger. Its 2797.75 signal wasn’t even touched by 10:15, despite having been in proximity for awhile. Another bounce is resolving down to fresh session lows anyway, but its “no-bias trending” will require retracing 2797.75 before a downleg can be very credible for extending. Having said that, I’d still give sellers a benefit of the doubt.
So far, two tests of 2797.75 have been interrupted by a bounce attacking 2802.00. Its recovery would start to signal momentum reversing up. An offsetting test of the bias-up signal wouldn’t be recovered, since bias-down wasn’t tested in time.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… A target is met, a setup is formed.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s last-minute 2801.00 high was still overlapping Tuesday’s prior high, but not rejecting it. Unfinished business above was left outstanding at 2804.00. Friday’s flat open dipped just enough to test the 2793.50 bias-down signal. Its reaction soon extended to fresh highs testing 2806.00, and soon peaked. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways between 2801.00-2806.00. Thursday’s touch of February’s 2800.75 pivotal high was not rejected, confirming the attractions above to ate last 2809.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked up to 2809.00 and ranged narrowly sideways. Tests of 2804.00 as support held through Europe’s opens, but an attempt to resume the earlier rally has been rejected by fresh overnight lows down to 2802.25. Its reaction up tested 2804.00 as resistance and has reversed down to fresh lows at 2800.50.
If, then…
An overnight probe above the prior session’s high has threatened to reverse back under the earlier overnight low. The differential between high and low is relatively narrow, but sufficient to trigger a downtrending morning. Probing the earlier overnight low post-open but then recovering it could resolve as bullishly as its failure would have been bearish. And then retesting the 2809.00 overnight high or probing it up to 2813.00-2816.75 would be likely before becoming vulnerable again to reversing down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2807.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2809.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2811.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2804.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2797.75 bias-down signal.
New chaRTroom Link
chaRTroom has a new link. The overnight Globex session opens in 45 minutes… See you there!