Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/14/18) …Which way to the detour?
Late-week action put into play higher objectives at 2809.00 and 2813.00-2816.75. Any higher would target 2836.00. Potentially new all time highs. There’s always a path, the question is whether it’s followed. The path down is only temporary if attempted before fulfilling the higher objective that late-week action put into play.
Meanwhile, the quarterly earnings onslaught is getting underway, and the market seems to want to react bullishly. The first week of earnings is often very different from its second week. So it’s interesting that monthly expiration interrupts the two weeks — we’ll have a WedEX signal addressing it on Wednesday.
These and other items are discussed in this week’s Saturday Review. Thanks to all who attended and participated.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GE, NFLX, AXP, ARNA, AAPL, STM, SYMC, CMG, WDC
transcript
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET. Friday morning’s new relative highs held, attacking a relevant prior high. There’s a path to new highs, but it has specific characteristics. We’ll discuss that during this weekend’s Saturday Review. The quarterly earnings onslaught has begun, too. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request. I’ll also review several picks from this week’s Barrons Magazine “Roundtable” issue… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2807.50 | 2809.00 |
| …would target | 2815.25 | 2816.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2796.00 | 2797.75 |
| …would target | 2790.00 | 2791.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday night’s rally to 2807.25 was retraced back into negative territory at 2795.50 overnight. And then price hovered, awaiting Friday’s open, postured to easily break under the 2797.00 earlier overnight low through the open. And the open was essentially right there, withing ticks of triggering a downtrend. But the opportunity wasn’t exploited. Neither was another opportunity, when fresh lows tested the 2793.50 bias-down signal. And that was it for sellers, with two failed attempts at reversing down. The consequence for an offsetting test of the morning’s 2804.00 bias-up signal was quickly fulfilled, and the balance of the session ranged sideways between 2801.00-2806.00.
The pre-open and post-open opportunities weren’t the only ones available for sellers to retake control. Either test of 2804.00 could have launched a downleg, too. Thursday night’s test had neutralized Thursday’s unfinished business above, and Friday morning’s test fulfilled the morning’s buying pressure. Not exploiting it already does make fresh highs a little likelier, especially with attractions outstanding at 2809.00 and 2813.00. But opening under Thursday’s close / Friday’s open would at least introduce a detour down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
SATURDAY REVIEW’S LINK WILL BE EMAILED BEFORE ITS 9:30 AM ET START.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s bounce from 1.1702 support had held 1.1740 resistance, only testing the 1.1725 buy signal at the close, so momentum did not reverse up. The overnight drop to 1.1665 support was retraced enough for Friday’s open to gap down to the 1.1702 support narrowly avoided Friday. The retracement extended to fill the gap back up to Thursday’s 1.1725 buy signal, which would still be valid if triggered.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding Thursday’s bounce at 1248.50 had kept alive the decline’s momentum, next targeting 1237.50. Which was met at the 1236.20 overnight low just before Friday’s gap down. Bounces must now hold tests of 1243.50 to maintain the decline’s momentum.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 16.02 buy signal was only touched at the peak of Thursday’s bounce, keeping alive the decline’s momentum for at least a deeper test of the prior week’s 15.80 low. Friday’s gap down did test it by a nickel, and leaves no “unfinished business below,” but it is premature to qualify as a low.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 145-02 / 145-25 range continued its influence Friday as Thursday’s dip back down to its lower-end was reversed to attack its upper-end. The range is effectively a “standing-stop,” and is losing its predictive value for identifying the first trending attempt beyond its range.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming slightly Friday morning keeps alive downside momentum which has already confirmed Wednesday’s breakout that requires at least an eventual third lower close.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The bounce to 2.82 resistance resolved down Friday to fresh lows attacking 2.75, and the lower-end of April’s range had launched the interim highs above 3.02. Bounces holding 2.80 would keep alive 2.71 and 2.67 targets below.