Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2802.75 | 2804.00 |
| …would target | 2010.25 | 2811.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2792.00 | 2793.50 |
| …would target | 2784.50 | 2786.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS-TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Trending up throughout Wednesday night tested the 2787.75 intraday high at Thursday’s open. Trending back down from 2791.00 to 2782.75 throughout the entire opening 15 minutes of volatility created a position of weakness. Any rally it produces would be doomed to failure.
But not as of Thursday’s close, apparently. The overnight rally resumed and extended up to 2800.50 through the noon hour’s exit. The balance of the afternoon ranged sideways down to 2795.00 or several ticks lower. But not until the afternoon’s bias-up signal triggered late, leaving outstanding its 2804.00 bias-up target.
Thursday’s closing action was overlapping Tuesday’s 2797.75 highs, including a very last-minute surge that touched 2801.00. Its reaction down after the cash session close fell to 2795.50.
But just touching February’s 2800.75 high — the high of a rally that was later exceeded by the current high — has put into play a test of the 2809.00 and 2813.00 actual highs. That signal’s lateness in the day, and Thursday’s opening position of weakness, do keep the door open to a downdraft before extending higher.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh pullback lows overnight attacked 1.1702 closely enough before Thursday’s open to consider its test as having fulfilled more selling pressure than Wednesday’s intraday dip to 1.1725. Regardless, closing back above 1.1725 starts to signal the pullback’s retracement up to 1.1850 is underway.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Barely filling the gap back down to the prior week’s 1241.60 low close was reversed back up through the Thursday morning up to Wednesday’s 1248.50 sell signal. Its recovery would help to start forming a bottom, but the bounce otherwise is only a temporary correction on the way down to 1237.50.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday from Wednesday’s test of the prior week’s 15.80 lows extended higher through the morning to touch the 16.02 buy signal. Closing above it would start to form a bottom and reverse the trend up. Again. Meanwhile, the buy signal’s test is potentially the peak of a corrective bounce.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s gap down to the 145-02 sell signal held its retest to produce a bounce that essentially filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s close. Its reaction attacked 145-02, still awaiting either its break lower or a break above 145-25 to extend in that direction.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing overnight back up to the 71.05 sell signal that had triggered Wednesday never improved Thursday, and only extended lower. Wednesday’s break from a multi-session range and under its 72.90 pullback limit is now a confirmed breakout. At least an eventual third lower close is required. Already having fulfilled the rally’s 75.30 target to within 3 cents, the signal could develop into a trend reversal.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s bounce was still testing its 2.82 bounce limit and not reversing the downtrend. Gapping down Thursday and extending down intraday keeps alive the decline’s momentum.
Mid-day Update… Don’t. Look. Down.
Still rallying.
Breaking higher into the noon hour probed above the morning’s 2794.25 high to attack 2798.00. RSIs diverged negatively while overlapping the afternoon’s 2797.00 bias-up signal. Would have triggered cleanly? We don’t know, because a knee-jerk reaction to a China trade war headline triggered a quick reaction down attacking 2792.00.
The bias-up signal was recovered in time to invoke the grace period. Actually, it was already probed up to 2800.50, and a reaction down touched 2797.00 at 1:20. There was plenty of time to trigger cleanly.
Bias-up ultimately triggered, but it has yet to produce any fresh high. Which makes it more easily rejected, by exiting the bias environment back under its 2790.00 bias-up signal. Otherwise, its 2804.00 bias-up target becomes “unfinished business above.”
Back under 2796.00 (being being tested now) would start to signal momentum reversing down. Back above 2799.75 would signal the rally has resumed).
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 13, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar is not busy, but its sole post-open report is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. The noon hour’s Fed speaker may help to keep participants involved longer than usual ahead of a weekend.
Neel Kashkari Speaks
Thu 8:00 PM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET